Winston-Salem, NC -- As a statistics nut, I like to glance over the box scores and league leaders in the baseball section of the newspaper on a daily basis. With the advent of Moneyball, there's no secret that certain front offices judge talent and build teams in a different way from before. Statistics such as on-base percentage, slugging percentage, sacrifice bunts, and stolen bases have entered into the limelight. The latter two are inversely related to the former two. After I read Moneyball four years ago, the overall theme that ran through the book was the value on "getting on base" any way you can. If you reach base, you theoretically, are not making an out. Sacrifice bunts and stolen bases are risky in terms of generating outs. The Oakland A's front office, who developed this new way of thinking (the stats were created by Bill James), cannot afford to pay for high priced, star free agents. Therefore, they draft college kids (signing bonuses are smaller), who have a knack for getting on base -- via walks, hit, hit-by-pitch, etc.
Everyone talks about park factors during fantast baseball draft time. For example, Alfonso Soriano will hit more than 46 HR's this year because he is playing in the "friendly confines" of Wrigley Field as opposed to cavernous RFK Stadium. How much does a park factor into a hitter's performance? It varies -- some "hitters" parks (Cincinnati, Colorado, and Boston) have a direct correlation with the team's offensive rank (and pitching rank for that matter). Don't we consider Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards, and Turner Field all hitter's parks? Not so fast!
In a formula developed by baseball genius, Bill James, we can determine how much a ballpark affects hitting. Here it is: PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) A PF greater than 1, shows it's a hitter's park, and conversely, less than 1 is a pitcher's park. Here are the numbers from 2006.
Some notables:
Camden Yards: 0.985
Turner Field: 0.946
Yankee Stadium: 0.900
Dodger Stadium: 1.046
Turner Field, by the way, is second in the major leagues for highest altitude. Also, in terms of ranking the park factors, take a look at Houston. That place is a bandbox -- 315 feet to left and yet they're ranked 12th, below Dodger Stadium. Coors Field, checking in a #2, is known for the homeruns sailing through the mile-high, thin air (#10 for HR's). But that thin air also allows a ton of doubles and triples that would be singles in most parks. Maybe they can take a hint from Atlanta and develop some pitching. The slugfests haven't worked for 14 years! So, next time you're drafting your fantasy baseball team and someone says this player is going to have a breakout year because they signed with Texas, you better think twice. Soriano only has 2 homeruns to date.
2 comments:
Brian --
Your note on Soriano's two homers was interesting, but you forgot to factor in the Curse of the Goat -- i.e., that everyone who is acquired by the Cubs somehow gets worse or gets shafted or both. Consider Ernie Banks -- two time National League MVP -- but never made it to the Series. Who are the two players with 400+ homes not in the Hall? Dawson and Kingman, and both played for the Cubbies. Wood and Prior were sure things with the promise of great careers ...both have spent more time on the IR than on the mound...both bitten by the Goat.
Hitter's Park/Pitcher's Park is an interesting statistic...but really is irrelevant when it come to the Cubs.
K.J. Brosch
You're right, KJ, the Cubs are irrelevant when it comes to baseball analysis. I've always pulled for them because I feel sorry. However, this year is a little bit different considering that they went on a Yankee-like rampage with the free agents. So, I am no longer rooting for them.
I believe that it was in 2003, some fans brought "The Goat" -- an actual goat to Wrigley so all of te fans could "embrace" it. They, of course, were turned away at the turnstiles because farm animals were prohibited from the ballpark. Would Bartman have stuck out his hand if the goat were escorted through the gate?
Look for Lilly, Marquis and Hill to have terrible second halves. It's the "Law of Averages;" their stats so far will regress to the mean (career stats). In these cases, they all have E.R.A.'s in the 4's.
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