A National Outlook

Greensboro, NC – They’re ranked last in everyone’s power rankings, last in total offense, last in all pitching categories, last in the National League East standings, and they’re still not dead last in payroll. With the absurd amounts of money thrown at players, we (the fans) have it prearranged that team payroll equates to wins. The Nationals, a team predicted to give the ’62 Mets a run for their money, are paying their 25 man roster $12 million more than the amount that the Yankees recently doled out for Roger Clemens. The Marlins, whose payroll is less than the Nats, started their rebuilding effort two years in advance of the Nats. Therefore, their team is comprised of younger players than the Nats’ roster. In the Collective Bargaining Agreement, young player are paid the minimum ($335,000) until they're eligible for arbitration (after 3 years of service time).

The Nats finished the 2006 season with a record of 71-91, one game better than the $75 million Orioles (Nats payroll in ’06: $56 M). Their record at the end of April 2006: 8-17. The Nats’ record at the end of April 2007: 8-18. Sure, the Nats don’t have Livan “Junkball” Hernandez, Tony Armas Jr., or Ramon Ortiz anchoring the staff. Livan has had a good start with the D-Backs, while Armas has been horrible with the Bucs, and Ortiz has struggled a bit with the Twinkies after a hot start. Jason Bergmann, who probably pitched the best game that any Nats’ start will pitch this year has been solid to this point. He owns the leader board in opponents batting average against (BAA) at 0.161. That’s better than Peavy, Smoltz, Oswalt, Zambrano, and Hamels. Shawn Hill has pitched 5 quality starts in 7 games. Matt Chico has struggled at times, but you have to love his mound presence and poise.

Here’s what I think the Nats should do. They should throw as many pitchers as possible “in the hopper” to see if two can become pieces to the long term puzzle. John Patterson won’t be with the team in 2009. If the Nats can develop two pitchers from 2007, coupled with one in 2008, then sign a free agent in 2009, they’ll have a very formidable staff. The Nats aren’t going to win in 2008 or 2009 either. The Brewers started rebuilding in 2003 and now they’re finally reaping the rewards. They developed their ace, Ben Sheets, and made smart trades to acquire Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, and Claudio Vargas. Then, they made a free agent splash this winter in signing Jeff Suppan. Look at the Tigers last year: they developed Bonderman, Maroth, and Robertson by throwing them “in the hopper” during 2003. They got lucky with Verlander, but made the smart free agent move by signing Kenny Rogers.

The Nats aren’t going to win next year either, even with the new ballpark increasing revenues... I see them reaching the 71 wins mark. I thought they would go 67-95 this year. I’ve noticed that when a team implements one of these “3 year or 5 year plans,” there’s always a set-back due to injuries, bad breaks, etc. It never actually goes according to plan -- see 2009. Look for 2010 to be the Nats’ year to make its mark in the NL East. That’s if they stick to the plan, develop pitchers, and don’t waste free agent money on the Tony Bautistas and the Pedro Astacios. Terrible free agent signings can stunt the rebuilding effort -- see the Orioles, they're in year 10.

If you'd like me to analyze your favorite team in a future blog, please let me know.