Thursday, July 24, 2008

Analyzing the Washington Trades

Greensboro, NC -- Two Washington professional ballclubs made a trade this week with the Redskins acquiring star defensive end and "Dancing with the Star" Jason Taylor from the Dolphins for a 2nd and a 5th round picks. The Nationals traded their closer Jon Rauch to the Diamondbacks for 2B prospect Emilio Bonifacio. My thoughts...
  • Throughout the sports talk history of this blog, I've preached that maintaining consistency and limiting roster turnover is the key to a team's long term success. Yes, the Skins changed coaching staff this offseason with Gibbs retiring. I was a bit displeased that Zorn was hired over Double G because the offense must learn an entire new playbook just when they were able to grapple Al Saunders' 700 page encyclopedia. But, I do like how the Skins used the draft this year, albeit heavy on picking WR's. They were also not a player in the free agent market for once. Trades and free agency should only be used to add the "final piece." And, if the Skins maintained the coaching staff, I believe that Taylor would have been that missing piece. During the past decade, the Skins have desperately needed a pass rusher, almost as much as a coveted franchise QB. I like this move because they didn't give up a 1st round pick and they addressed a dire need of concern on the defensive line. Two question marks that plague me...
  1. What type of coach will Jim Zorn be? Can we rely on Greg Blache to be an effective defensive coordinator? Zorn and Blache have never been coordinators before.
  2. Taylor is 34, which is getting up there in NFL years. He's also being moved to the right side of the line, not the left side where he played in Miami. He won't be rushing the QB from the QB's blind side, which could make a difference because the TE and RB are usually lined up on the right side as well.
  • After commanding a steep price for Rauch and Chad Cordero during last season's trading deadline, the Nats settled for speed utility man Emilio Bonifacio. The ever-optimist GM Jim Bowden has already penciled Bonifacio in as the starter next season. Was this the guy who is supposed to replace Orlando Hudson on the DBacks when he leaves via free agency this offseason? I agree with ESPN's Keith Law's take on the deal:

For Washington, getting just Emilio Bonifacio for Rauch has to be seen as a letdown, although it's better than their trade-deadline results from 2007. The Nationals chose not to make any moves at that deadline, re-signing Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard to bizarre contract extensions while asking for so much for Rauch and Chad Cordero that teams were unwilling to even negotiate the prices down. One year later, Cordero's value has evaporated, Young and Belliard have both performed worse since signing their deals (with Young missing time on the DL due to back problems and issues with his weight, both not shocking developments at all), and now Rauch has fetched a utility infielder. Bonifacio can run and has a quick, slashing stroke, but his baseball instincts are poor and he's far too aggressive at the plate. He doesn't project to hit for enough power to play second base every day on a contending club. He's athletic enough to move around the diamond and serve as a pinch-runner, but it's a stretch to see him as a regular.

Meanwhile, learning nothing from the Young/Belliard mistakes, the Nationals re-upped Cristian Guzman for two years and $16 million. Guzman was a cipher in the first year of his four-year deal, then missed 2005 and most of '06 due to injury. His hot start in 2008 has masked the evaporation of his power (he's slugging .360 since June 1), and he has never had a lick of plate discipline. Like Young and Belliard before him, he was a candidate to be moved, not to be re-signed. Bad teams should not be locking up their mediocrities to long-term deals, but rather should be looking to convert them all into any kind of young players.

Could not agree more with that last sentence. Guzman possesses no power. He's the only player in the Nats lineup hitting over .250. I can't see Bowden last until the end of Guzman's new contract with these awful contracts -- Young, Belliard, and now Guzman. Place Bonifacio as Guzman's double play partner and you may have the weakest infield lineup in the majors for the next two seasons. What happened to "The Plan?"

6 comments:

Unknown said...

This is all true. If they are not committed to acquiring and developing young talent, it would have been a better plan to spend a lot of money and open the stadium with a Major League team.

JasonB said...

I agree the Redskin trade was good. Well, much better than what we've done in the past. If Taylor plays more than this year, it will definitely be a good trade. I think he and Carter will probably be switching around quite a bit. His production may look like its declined, but I predict he'll have a big impact here.

As for the Nats, who knows what they are doing. Bowden is not looking good these days. Seemingly random trades and extensions, not to mention his (alleged) extra curricular activities down in the Dominican.

What about the Os? They need to sell, sell, sell. It was a nice run the first half. The starting pitching has come back down to Earth now, and they won't contend. Even when they were doing good, they weren't selling out seats. Dump everyone like the plan called for.

Oh, and Coach Blache was a Def Coord with the Bears before he came here.

Unknown said...

The O's shouldn't make the same mistake in not trading Sherrill that the Nats did last year with not trading Cordero. Sherrill's value is completely inflated after his allstar appearance and the O's have Chris Ray (not that he will be the long-term answer). Good teams need closers and trade too much for them. The next George Sherrill will be brought up next spring by the O's.

Unknown said...

Just like in fantasy baseball, closers are overrated. You can always develop them, i.e. that guy who throws 95 MPH but isn't good enough to be a starter. The Nats should have dumped Cordero either at the last deadline or in 2006.

Look at the model team in baseball, the LA Angels. K-Rod wants 5 years-$75M; the Angels laughed. He'll be somewhere else next year, but the Angels will still be good.

JasonB said...

What do you think they should about Jim Johnson? He's pretty legit. While he's very useful as a set up man, he could be a good closer. Why don't they give him an opportunity to start like the Yanks did with Joba?

Unknown said...

Keep Johnson in the bullpen. I watched in start in Single A Frederick in 2005 and he was just average. I think Radhemmes(sp?) Liz would be an exceptional closer.