Friday, March 21, 2008

NL East Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – The last division that I’ll be covering is also my favorite. The NL East has some genuine contenders in the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. With all of these foolish predictions by players in the division, it’s time to shake out the pecking order…

  1. New York Mets
  2. Atlanta Braves
  3. Philadelphia Phillies
  4. Washington Nationals
  5. Florida Marlins

I believe that I would have switched the 1 and 2 seeds if it weren’t for the Mets’ acquisition of Johan Santana. Some key things need to happen for the Mets to recapture the division back from the Phillies. The aging vets – Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, and Luis Castillo must stay healthy. The back end of the rotation must pull through – John Maine (who has had an excellent spring), Oliver Perez, and El Duque. And finally, the bullpen must stabilize, starting with Billy Wagner. But I think with the Santana trade, the Mets helped stabilize the weakest part of their team last year, starting pitching.

Here’s hoping that Tom Glavine still has a little fuel left in the tank. Aside from John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, the Braves couldn’t get any quality starting pitching last year. Signing Glavine and plugging him into the 3 slot helps and I love the trade of Renteria to the Tigers for Jair Jurrjens – not a strikeout pitcher, but somebody to sure up the back-end of a week rotation. This team can mash starting with the back-to-back switch hitting combo of Jones and Texeira. Keep an eye out for Yunel Escobar at short, he can play. I like the Braves as the representative for the Wild Card in the National League.

Coupled with the Mets choking down the stretch and an amazing September run, the Phillies just barely squeezed by the Mets to capture the NL East crown last season. The Phillies two best starters, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, are injury-prone. Who knows that the Phils will get out of Brad Lidge at the closer position. Rollins, Utley, and Howard can’t all have career years again together. I seem this team regressing to the middle of the pack.

Aside from the Rays, the Nats had one of the best offseasons of any team. Yes, they’re taking on some risk with problematic, but talented outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. This team is still two years away from contention; it’ll take that long to allow the stockpile of young pitchers at the A-class level to mature and develop. I believe in “The Plan.” Who’s going to throw out the first pitch at the new Nationals Park? We know it’s not John Patterson.

The Marlins are also conducting a rebuilding project of their own in hope of reaping the rewards in time for their proposed new ballpark. The two biggest pieces of the team, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, were moved to Detroit in exchange for two talented young players Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Don’t overlook this team though… Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs are a nice, young infield core. If Jeremy Hermida could stay healthy, this team would be building a deep lineup for the near future. Still, I predict a basement finish for the Phish in 2008.

No comments: