AL East Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – We move to the eastern divisions during the next two days. Starting with quite possibly the “toughest” division in all of baseball, the AL East, how can you not initiate the conversation without the Red Sox and Yankees? With the Blue Jays always labeled as the “sleeper” team and the “Rays” developing into a gulp, “contender possibility,” this division will be a meat grinder until the end. Oh yeah, the Orioles play in this division too. Here’s the grand finish…

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
   

Last year, I accurately predicted that the Red Sox would win the division because of their superior starting pitching. With Schilling out, Beckett hurt, and Colon struggling, that isn’t the case anymore. The Yankees – with no major free agent acquisition – will win the division this year based on their starting pitching: Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Mussina. We all know their lineup is stacked with perhaps on the Tigers trotting out a better one. And finally, they have that 8th inning bridge to Rivera in the 9th that they’ve been lacking since they were winning World Series titles in Joba Chamberlain.

Call it the “World Series hangover,” but the Sox almost choked down the stretch to the Yankees last summer. They barely hung on despite beating up on the Yankees early on in the season and possessing a 14½ game lead in June. While the same lineup is back, the starting pitching took a hit with some spring training injuries. This team still oozes talent, especially in its young players: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buckholz, Lester. I’ll give them the Wild Card.

The Blue Jays never lack in talent; it’s always that one key player gets hurt and their season is derailed. Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Chacin, and Marcum comprise a formidable rotation. Still, this team needs major contributions from its veterans, Thomas, Wells (earn that contract!), Rolen, Eckstein, Overbay, and Rios. All of these guys are capable of producing big numbers – the question is if they can stay healthy and out of prolonged slumps.

The Rays have a fine system in place – yes fine. If a media member calls them the “Devil Rays,” they are fined $1.00. That dollar goes to charity, but it shows you that the “Rays” have fully changed the culture of their organization. I think this will be the year where the organization takes a step forward, but they’ll need another year or two after this one to be a legitimate contender. There’s been a lot of talk about this team and here’s why: check out the rotation.

• Kazmir
• Shields
• Garza
• Sonnastine
• Jackson

How about this lineup…

• Crawford, LF
• Iwamura, 2B
• Upton, CF
• Pena, 1B
• Floyd, DH
• Longoria, 3B – will probably be sent down to Triple A to avoid a “super 2” situation
• RF (Baldelli is out indefinitely)
• Navarro, C
• Bartlett, SS

If the Rays can sure up the bullpen (signing Troy Percival augments the pen), they could be a force to be reckoned with.

By trading away some pricey veterans (Tejada, Bedard, Roberts?), the Orioles have put up the white flag on the 2008 season. This team won’t be ready to compete until 2010 if Angelos can keep his hands off the rebuilding process. The rotation is a mess – Guthrie (one year wonder?), Loewen (basically injured all of last year), Cabrera (erratic), and Trachsel (a below average veteran). The lineup has some pieces, but not many. Markakis needs to get off to a hot start unlike the past two seasons. Who will start at shortstop? If the O’s do trade Roberts to the Cubs, why not swing a deal with the Nats for one of their extra mid infielders – Lopez, Belliard, or Guzman? I’ll go out of a limb and say 65 wins for this squad.