2008 MLB Predictions

Winston-Salem, NC – The Thursday before Opening Day is always circled on my calendar for one reason: MLB Predictions Day with Pearl! Without further ado, let me roll out this year’s picks:

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det.
NL MVP: Matt Holliday, OF, Col.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Det.
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, NYM

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
NL Rookie of the Year: Jayson Nix, 2B, Col.

Surprise Team: Cincinnati Reds

Playoffs:
AL: Tigers over Red Sox
Angels over Yankees
Tigers over Angels

NL: Diamondbacks over Braves
Mets over Cubs
Diamondbacks over Mets

World Series: Tigers over Diamondbacks

NL East Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – The last division that I’ll be covering is also my favorite. The NL East has some genuine contenders in the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. With all of these foolish predictions by players in the division, it’s time to shake out the pecking order…

1. New York Mets
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

I believe that I would have switched the 1 and 2 seeds if it weren’t for the Mets’ acquisition of Johan Santana. Some key things need to happen for the Mets to recapture the division back from the Phillies. The aging vets – Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, and Luis Castillo must stay healthy. The back end of the rotation must pull through – John Maine (who has had an excellent spring), Oliver Perez, and El Duque. And finally, the bullpen must stabilize, starting with Billy Wagner. But I think with the Santana trade, the Mets helped stabilize the weakest part of their team last year, starting pitching.

Here’s hoping that Tom Glavine still has a little fuel left in the tank. Aside from John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, the Braves couldn’t get any quality starting pitching last year. Signing Glavine and plugging him into the 3 slot helps and I love the trade of Renteria to the Tigers for Jair Jurrjens – not a strikeout pitcher, but somebody to sure up the back-end of a week rotation. This team can mash starting with the back-to-back switch hitting combo of Jones and Texeira. Keep an eye out for Yunel Escobar at short, he can play. I like the Braves as the representative for the Wild Card in the National League.

Coupled with the Mets choking down the stretch and an amazing September run, the Phillies just barely squeezed by the Mets to capture the NL East crown last season. The Phillies two best starters, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, are injury-prone. Who knows that the Phils will get out of Brad Lidge at the closer position. Rollins, Utley, and Howard can’t all have career years again together. I seem this team regressing to the middle of the pack.

Aside from the Rays, the Nats had one of the best offseasons of any team. Yes, they’re taking on some risk with problematic, but talented outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. This team is still two years away from contention; it’ll take that long to allow the stockpile of young pitchers at the A-class level to mature and develop. I believe in “The Plan.” Who’s going to throw out the first pitch at the new Nationals Park? We know it’s not John Patterson.

The Marlins are also conducting a rebuilding project of their own in hope of reaping the rewards in time for their proposed new ballpark. The two biggest pieces of the team, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, were moved to Detroit in exchange for two talented young players Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Don’t overlook this team though… Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs are a nice, young infield core. If Jeremy Hermida could stay healthy, this team would be building a deep lineup for the near future. Still, I predict a basement finish for the Phish in 2008.

AL East Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – We move to the eastern divisions during the next two days. Starting with quite possibly the “toughest” division in all of baseball, the AL East, how can you not initiate the conversation without the Red Sox and Yankees? With the Blue Jays always labeled as the “sleeper” team and the “Rays” developing into a gulp, “contender possibility,” this division will be a meat grinder until the end. Oh yeah, the Orioles play in this division too. Here’s the grand finish…

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
   

Last year, I accurately predicted that the Red Sox would win the division because of their superior starting pitching. With Schilling out, Beckett hurt, and Colon struggling, that isn’t the case anymore. The Yankees – with no major free agent acquisition – will win the division this year based on their starting pitching: Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Mussina. We all know their lineup is stacked with perhaps on the Tigers trotting out a better one. And finally, they have that 8th inning bridge to Rivera in the 9th that they’ve been lacking since they were winning World Series titles in Joba Chamberlain.

Call it the “World Series hangover,” but the Sox almost choked down the stretch to the Yankees last summer. They barely hung on despite beating up on the Yankees early on in the season and possessing a 14½ game lead in June. While the same lineup is back, the starting pitching took a hit with some spring training injuries. This team still oozes talent, especially in its young players: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buckholz, Lester. I’ll give them the Wild Card.

The Blue Jays never lack in talent; it’s always that one key player gets hurt and their season is derailed. Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Chacin, and Marcum comprise a formidable rotation. Still, this team needs major contributions from its veterans, Thomas, Wells (earn that contract!), Rolen, Eckstein, Overbay, and Rios. All of these guys are capable of producing big numbers – the question is if they can stay healthy and out of prolonged slumps.

The Rays have a fine system in place – yes fine. If a media member calls them the “Devil Rays,” they are fined $1.00. That dollar goes to charity, but it shows you that the “Rays” have fully changed the culture of their organization. I think this will be the year where the organization takes a step forward, but they’ll need another year or two after this one to be a legitimate contender. There’s been a lot of talk about this team and here’s why: check out the rotation.

• Kazmir
• Shields
• Garza
• Sonnastine
• Jackson

How about this lineup…

• Crawford, LF
• Iwamura, 2B
• Upton, CF
• Pena, 1B
• Floyd, DH
• Longoria, 3B – will probably be sent down to Triple A to avoid a “super 2” situation
• RF (Baldelli is out indefinitely)
• Navarro, C
• Bartlett, SS

If the Rays can sure up the bullpen (signing Troy Percival augments the pen), they could be a force to be reckoned with.

By trading away some pricey veterans (Tejada, Bedard, Roberts?), the Orioles have put up the white flag on the 2008 season. This team won’t be ready to compete until 2010 if Angelos can keep his hands off the rebuilding process. The rotation is a mess – Guthrie (one year wonder?), Loewen (basically injured all of last year), Cabrera (erratic), and Trachsel (a below average veteran). The lineup has some pieces, but not many. Markakis needs to get off to a hot start unlike the past two seasons. Who will start at shortstop? If the O’s do trade Roberts to the Cubs, why not swing a deal with the Nats for one of their extra mid infielders – Lopez, Belliard, or Guzman? I’ll go out of a limb and say 65 wins for this squad.

NL Central Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – Switching leagues today, we’ll take a look at the NL Central division. Last season, the Cubs spent around $360M to overhaul their roster after a dismal 2006 season. It paid immediate dividends as they captured the NL Central crown. I figure that the Brew Crew will again make some noise this year as well. The remaining four teams still have their work cut out for them – some more than others. Here’s the 2008 lineup…

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
   

I can’t see any team matching up to the Cubs in both pitching and hitting. Their lineup is pretty well rounded. As I mentioned before, I still think Felix Pie is the next Corey Patterson; a ton of hype and speed, but nothing else. Ramirez, Theriot, DeRosa (Brian Roberts by Opening Day, maybe?), Lee can all mash and possess Gold Gloves. Japanese import Kosuke Fukodome, along with Soriano adds both power and speed. Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Dempster, and Marquis form a solid rotation. The only question mark on this team is who will be the closer; Carlos Marmol or Kerry Wood?

The Brewers made a nice run last year until they faded down the stretch. They may have the best lineup in the division and one of the best stables of young players out of any team. However, the beer men lack starting pitching depth. When ace Ben Sheets goes down again (as always), who will step up? Gallardo (9-5, 3.67 ERA), Suppan (12-12, 4.62 ERA), Bush (12-10, 5.12 ERA)? The starting pitching depth will haunt the Brewers all season.

It was only a couple of years ago that the Astros has one of the best rotations in the game (Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte, Miller) and no offense to complement it. Now, it’s a role reversal with Oswalt being the last man standing. Berkman, Tejada, and Lee are a powerful trio in the middle of the lineup. However, you can’t tell me Backe, Rodriguez and Williams are sufficient starters.

This season will be one of rebuilding for the Cardinals. Their top two pitchers, Carpenter and Mulder are on the shelf. Pujols has an impending elbow ligament surgery that he’s trying to avoid. The heart and soul of the World Series team are all but gone; Eckstein, Rolen, and Edmonds have left via free agency and trades. Look, the Cardinals aren’t going to be competitive this year; why not have Pujols get the surgery over now and come back at full strength for a reloaded 2009 team?

The Reds added some nice pieces this offseason by subtracting offense (Hamilton) and adding pitching (Volquez, Cordero). The Reds are still a season or two from being competitive, but it’ll be fascinating to watch star prospect Jay Bruce take over in center field. The Reds won’t be hurting for hitting with the return of Dunn, Griffey, Phillips, and Freel. The best thing that could happen this season for the Reds would be to develop their young pitching – Volquez, Bailey, and Cueto.

The Pirates (finally) pulled the plug on GM Dave Littlefield. Littlefield was responsible for several botched free agent signings and trades (Matt Morris) and poor drafting. Frank Coonelly takes over as President of the Bucs. In addition to Coonelly, fresh off a stint as Major League Baseball's chief labor counsel, Neal Huntington took over the GM position and John Russell takes over for Jim Tracy as manager. Huntington comes from the very successful Cleveland Indians organization where he was an assistant to GM Mark Shapiro. I firmly believe that having intelligent baseball people running the front office will result in more wins on the field. Unfortunately, at this time, there’s not enough talent on the field to compete. Give the Pirates three years and they’ll have this ship turned around (no pun intended).

AL Central Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – In today’s breakdown, we’ll take a look at the toughest division to predict, the AL Central. There are two powerhouses at the top, the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers. The White Sox may be the most difficult team to predict where they’ll finish. With the Twins regressing to the bottom with the losses of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, coupled with the major strides made by the Kansas City Royals, this division is a toss-up in stacking order. I’ll take my best shot here:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals
   

The Tigers, with quite possibly the best lineup in the majors, appears to be the team to beat. Check out this stacked lineup:

1. Granderson, CF
2. Renteria, SS
3. Sheffield, DH
4. Ordonez, RF
5. Cabrera, 3B
6. Guillen, 1B
7. Polanco, 2B
8. Rodriguez, C
9. Thames, LF

I think their pitching staff is underrated. It didn’t match their performances of the 2006 season when they made an appearance in the World Series. Still, I’d take Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson any day of the week.

The Indians came within one game from winning the AL pennant. Their lineup is very balanced with speed at the top – Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera – and power in the middle – Hafner, Martinez, and Garko. The Indians also possess a powerful 1-2 punch in their pitching staff with reigning AL Cy Young Winner C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. With Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee, the Indians have a well above-average staff.

I’m not sure what to expect out of the White Sox this year. Clearly, they need pitching and they’ll be fine. A trio of Buerhle, Vazquez, and Contreras is formidable, but what are they going to get out of John Danks and Gavin Floyd? A lineup featuring Swisher, Dye, Konerko, Crede, Orlando Cabrera, and Thome will have no problem scoring runs.

I can never count out the Twins because of their front office proficiency. However, with the retirement of talented GM Terry Ryan and the botched trade of Johan Santana to the Mets, I’m unsure where this team lies. Delmon Young can flat out rake. Cuddyer, Mauer, and Morneau will be pumping runs across the board all season. But take a look at their current staff: Liriano (didn’t pitch last year), Bonser (8-12, 5.10 ERA last year), Baker (9-9, 4.26 ERA last year), and rookie Kevin Slowey. That rotation spells a .500 season.

The Royals definitely have a game plan thanks to the mastermind GM Dayton Moore. Who would’ve thought that Gil Meche would be the stalwart starter that only Moore predicted? Greinke, Bannister, and De La Rosa are learning on the job. The lineup is full of young players in Gordon, Buck, Butler, Teahen, Pena, and Gload waiting to breakout. Their new manager, Trey Hillman, is a players’ coach. Read his biography if you get the chance and see how he performed managing in Japan during the past couple of years. I think this team is one year behind the Rays in terms of development and waiting to make some noise in the division.

NL West Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC -- We switch leagues now and head over to the NL West, arguably the toughes division to predict. With the exception of the Giants, this division houses four legitimate contenders. The Rockies, fresh off an appearance in the World Series, are still very young and strong. The D-Backs, with the acquisition of Dan Haren and an appearance in the NLCS, will be back. The Dodgers, with the addition of Joe Torre, will be in the mix. And, let's not forget the Padres, who have a great 1-2 punch in Peavy and Chris Young, and the best bullpen in the game. Here's my rundown...

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Diego Padres
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Francisco Giants

I like the D-Backs because of their blend of youth mixed with seasoned veterans. They have two aces in Webb and Haren, and a wild card in Randy Johnson. Their lineup isn't stacked, but it's solid. They have a thirst to get back in the postseason, especially after having a bad taste lest in their mouths by the red hot Rockies.

The Padres will be in the thick of the race until the end. If Chris Young can remain injury-free, I see this team taking Arizona until the final game. Their outfield offense is a bit weak, but it'll be their pitching that carries them.

There's something about teams reaching/winning the World Series, and then having a hangover the next season. I'm predicting just that with the Rockies. Their starting pitching is a little suspect. They are the converse to the Padres; there bats will carry this team as far as it will go.

I like the hiring of Joe Torre and all, but I don't think the Dodgers have the pieces to be a legitimate contender. They have strong starting pitching and that's about it. Garciaparra, Furcal, Kent, and Ethier are all injury-prone. Who knows what kind of production they'll get out of Andruw Jones? Matt Kemp is a star in the making.

The Giants, as their own manager calls them, are horrific. See my earlier blog about Rowand. They aren't even worth mentioning.

AL West Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC -- B's Bistro is starting his divisional predictions with the AL West because, other than the NL Central, it's probably the easiest division to predict. Here goes the rundown:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland A's
4. Texas Rangers

The Angels are the "powerhouse" of the division. If I owned a baseball team, I'd run it the same way that Angels owner Arte Moreno runs it; solid drafting, using free agency for complementary pieces, making ballpark tickets and food affordable, and creating a branded marketing plan around town. Lackey, Jered Weaver, Escobar, and Ervin Santana are a rock solid rotation. On the hitting side, the Angels finally found some protection for Vlad in Torii Hunter. I can't see the M's catching up with this first class organization.

The Mariners added a nice pitching piece in Erik Bedard to round out their above-average rotation. Still, I don't think that Felix Hernandez, Bedard, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista are enough to surpass the Angels. They're too many holes in the lineup. Wilkerson is a liability in rightfield and Sexson is a strikeout machine at first base. Remember when Sexson went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of a fantasy baseball draft? There's not enough offense to contend legitimately.

The A's sold all of their marketable parts -- Nick Swisher, Mark Kotsay, and Dan Haren -- to restock the farm system. I still think that the A's will nudge the Rangers in the fight to stay out of the cellar. Their pitching staff with Harden healthy still isn't bad -- Harden, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, and Lenny DiNardo. It'll keep them from finishing below the Rangers.

The Rangers still don't get the memo. They overpay for mediocre arms in free agency and load up on bats. I think Michael Young will bounce back after a subpar year at SS. I'd like to see one of my favorite players Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia step up into superstar status. This team has no true ace; no, Kevin Millwood doesn't count. It's another year in the basement for the Rangers until they start scouting, drafting, and developing quality starting pitching.

Spring Training Wrap-Up

Greensboro, NC -- I arrived back to Carolina last night after spending the last four days in the greater Phoenix area. Aside from the two dozen strawberry mojitos, poolside sunbathing, and a round of golf at the luxurious We-Ko-Pa golf course, we did manage to catch some ballgames in Arizona.

• Had a half slab of ribs and half a chicken at the famous Don and Charlie's restaurant in Scottsdale. We saw Steve Stone there taking in a meal. Upon entering the restaurant, the foyer is covered with autographed photos of Don and Charlie standing next to a famous athlete or celebrity. The wall ranged from Oprah to Dan Patrick to the Monday Night Football crew to Mike D'Antoni to Peter Forsberg to Hammerin' Hank Goldberg holding a drumstick.
• Took in the Cubs-Mariners game from HoHoKam Park (Cubs) in Mesa. The Cubs won 6-4. Saw a couple of Mariner relievers warming up in the pen close up, but judging by their high uniform numbers, I don't think we'll see them in the majors.
• You heard it hear first: Felix Pie is the next Corey Patterson... a ton of hype, but ultimately a bust.
• We were chilling out at the ultra cool Fairmont Hotel bar (where we stayed) when two guys (holding hands) came up and sat next to me as I was engaged in a conversation with Pearl. They overheard us talking about baseball and such. While the gay act was ultimately about to make me the butt of their joke, we quickly learned that the famous father-son umpire tandem was introducing themselves to us, Paul and Brian Runge. Paul was actually the union crew chief for two years in the mid-1990's. We drilled the father and son with questions for about 30-40 minutes. Brian actually shared a pretty cool story with us. He was the umpire who stepped in between the 3rd base umpire and Lou Piniella last year when Sweet Lou threw his first and only tirade to date with the Cubs. About a week later, Piniella sent each umpire an apology letter in the mail and meant no hard feelings whatsoever. We also learned that as soon as family is brought into the argument, that player or coach is immediately ejected from the game. All and all, a pretty cool experience.
• Brian's umpire number is 71. I'm allowed to yell at him if we're at the same game and he'll see about taking me down to the clubhouse.

If you're a baseball fan, Arizona is a sweet destination to soak in spring training. 77 degrees and no humidity prevents you from being crabby regardless of your mood. Everyone in Scottsdale was talking baseball, and that's something that you cannot beat.

Spring Training

Phoenix, AZ -- I finally made it out here to Arizona after sleeping through my alarm for my original flight. I missed the A's-Cubs game because of my ineptitude. Today, we're checking out the Cubs-Mariners from HoHoKam Park -- the Cubs spring training site. More details on the game and site will follow.

I saw my first cactus within 2 minutes of arriving here. They're located on the airport grounds. However, I did not know that Arizona had palm trees. We're staying in Scottsdale; this place must be the ritzy side of town. It's full of upper class dining and shops. We ran into Steve Stone, the White Sox new television analyst and a personal TV favorite, at dinner last night. Word is that we just missed Alfonso Soriano at the bar "E4" when we walked in. For the record, it was "Latin Night" at this particular swanky bar.

More to follow from Arizona...