Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Baseball Free Agency

Greensboro, NC -- With the World Series beginning tonight, many players will become eligible for free agency following the Rays' 5 game series win against the Phils. Unlike previous offseasons, this winter actually has a bevy of impact free agents. On top of all of that is the fact that Jake Peavy, 2007 NL Cy Young Winner, will probably be dealt as well. Reading an essay about Peavy two years ago, I highly doubt that he would waive his no trade clause to pitch in the Northeast. He's a southern boy from Alabama, and with the prospects that the Braves have in their stables, Peavy seems like a natural fit in Atlanta.

One free agent has already signed with their current team; Mark Ellis re-upped with the A's at 2 years-$11M. As J.C. Bradbury outlines in his excellent blog here, the A's got a steal.

Onto the big name free agents:
  • Mark Teixeira -- I've read and researched a ton about this guy when he was with the Braves. This guy loves money, and by looking at his numbers driven work ethic, I think he rejects his hometown team's offer, and Boras works out a deal with his amicable Red Sox front office buddies. Youkilis moves to 3B, Lowell can shift to the DH position.
  • A.J. Burnett -- It may be a cold winter in Baltimore, as I believe "Hank the Yank" blows the O's offer out of the water if Sabathia spurns them. A.J. may take Pavano's spot on the Yank's roster, both figuratively and literally.
  • C.C. Sabathia -- The Dodgers are a natural fit; he's building a home in SoCal and he likes to hit. But the thrifty, big market Dodgers may resist considering Coletti's track record in free agency -- Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra. I like the Angels here.
  • K-Rod -- The Mets have to, and will, sign him. When the bullpen is the culprit two years in a row for missing the playoffs, you need stopgaps everywhere.
  • Ben Sheets -- I think it's a toss-up here between the Astros and Braves. I say the Braves because if they don't land Peavy or another ace, they'll go after Sheets. Draytom McLane, the fickle Astros owner, becomes very bilpolar around this time of year; could he take the cheap route and stick with his current rotation or could he become part of the bidding and bring Sheets closer to his home?
  • Manny -- Any reasonable and sane front office would shy away from him. That's why I'm picking the Dodgers as the front runners. However, there is pressure on the Nats' ownership to spend some money this offseason. DC's attendance will dip substantially if a highly regarded free agent is not signed. Look for the Nats to be a wild card in the Manny sweepstakes.
  • Jason Giambi -- He needs to go back to Oakland, relax, and club 35 HR's and hit .300 again. At a reduced salary, he may just do it once all of the other free agents have been signed.
  • Orlando Hudson -- His upbeat personality and infield D should be something that the Mets covet. If they're smart, they'd ink the O-dog as soon as the free agency gun is fired.
  • Carlos Delgado -- What seemed like a no-brainer to decline his option back in May, it's now a no-brainer for the Mets to exercise the option.
  • Andy Pettitte -- Yankees or bust. There will be no second homecoming in Houston. I see a cool 1 year-$8M deal on the table.

I'm just picking possible free agents off the top of my head. I do believe that the Yankees will be major players this offseason with all of the excess cash come off the books -- $80M -- and the new stadium opening up. But, as recent history has shown, star players sometimes don't thrive in New York. It's taken a string of no World Series championships to demonstrate that New York isn't a slice of heaven. Milwaukee, Baltimore, DC, and St. Louis are other teams no mentioned here, who have cash to spend this offseason. They could all be wild cards. It looks to be an eventful winter with free agency and trades, coupled with the second World Baseball Classic.

Thoughts/suggestions/ideas on the free agency landscape?

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