sweep of the division rival Mets. The Mets traded four prospects and shelled out $137.5M for Johan Santana, the pitcher who is supposed to insert a plug into prolonged losing streaks. Santana, in his two Cy Young seasons (2004 & 2006), was particularly strong in the second half of those seasons. But, last season marked a strong contrast. Santana faded badly during the last six weeks of the season and ended up going 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA. Those numbers are still pretty good in the hitter savy American League. However, when you begin to grind into the statistics a little bit more -- as in ratios! -- you'll see that those numbers can be misleading. Check out Santana's production for the last three years (courtesy of Buster Olney's blog):- K's / 9 innings: 9.44 (2006), 9.66 (2007), 7.79 (2008)
- K / BB: 5.21, 4.52, 3.87
- Opponents' OPS: .616, .678, .723
"One AL scout who saw Santana pitch this year: 'His stuff isn't even close to what it was [with the Twins].'"
I'd still take Santana over any starter if I had to win one game. Although, Tim Hudson would be difficult to pass over when he's "on." However, his minor inconsistency plagues me from picking him. Santana has the amazing ability to change speeds, as in using that devastating change-up after throwing a 95 mph heater. He's also a fantastic athlete as proven by his hitting ability this year in the National League. He'll continue to be an "effective" pitcher into his 30's, but how much longer will his dominance last? Scouts and writers believed that by switching to the National League, Santana's numbers would improve more with the lack of hitting talent compared to the American League. As Olney points out, the August 17th game last year where Santana recorded 17 strikeouts has been marked as a turning point. Since that start, Santana has an ERA above 4, allowed 20 HR's in 111 innings with only 102 K's (well below his average per 9 innings). The scarier part of the equation is his contract. Look at the annual totals after this season:
- 2008: $19M
- 2009: $20M
- 2010: $21M
- 2011: $22.5M
- 2012: $24M
- 2013: $25.5M
- 2014: $25M club option ($5.5M buyout).
By 2013, Santana will be 34, hardly a geezer for a pitcher. But if his numbers are already in decline, do you think the Mets front office is a tad bit worried? Glad I'm not a Mets' fan...
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From Buster Olney's blog (5.28.08):
"But evaluators with other teams continue to say that they see a regression in Santana's stuff, and that he has gone from flat-out dominant to very good. 'The effort required for him to throw his fastball was something very different,' said one evaluator. 'I mean, he used to throw 93-94 mph effortlessly. Effortlessly. And now he's got to put a lot of effort in his delivery to throw 90-91 mph.' And evaluators this year report the same thing they did at the end of last season: He throws his slider much less than he did in the past. Santana is the rock of the Mets right now, but fans are beginning to realize he's not going to be a modern-day Koufax.
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