Tremors in the AL East?

Winston-Salem, NC -- Always the toughest division in the majors due to the big market teams at the top, there is a sense this year that the door is open for Tampa Bay and Toronto to make some postseason noise.  Are the Red Sox really "rebuilding?"  Here's how I believe they'll finish in 2012.

New York

It’s tough to pick against them since the Bombers always find a way into the postseason.  For the first time in quite awhile, the Yankees did not sign a “big” free agent.  The lineup has been both consistent and solid for a number of years.  Beyond ace CC Sabathia, the team had many holes until a significant trade was made this offseason with Seattle.  The Yankees traded slugging C/DH Jesus Montero to the M’s for star-in-the-making RHP Michael Pineda.  While Pineda’s numbers were far from perfect, his raw ability and talent make him a future number two in even the best rotations.  Tampa Bay, Boston, and Toronto will be hurdles, but ultimately, I can see New York taking another division title this year.  An interesting question is how much gas does Andy Pettitte have left in the tank?  He may not need much considering the depth of starting pitching in the Bronx.

Tampa Bay

The ultimate no-named pitching staff belongs to Tampa Bay.  The Rays are loaded with starters – James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Jeff Niemann form the best one-five in the majors.  If the Rays can generate any respectable form of offense, this team will be dangerous into and throughout the postseason.  Two big questions – can the bullpen hold up?  And, who is going to protect Longoria in the middle of the lineup?  If Joe Maddon can continue working magic, the league’s most under-appreciated team could be appreciated.

Boston

One never utters the “r” word in a big market, but it certainly feels like the Sox are rebuilding.  They’ve shipped out stud GM Theo Epstein (not their choice), Manager Terry Francona, old-timers Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek, and in a cost-cutting move, Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie.  Will the city of Boston forgive the talented, but troubled starting pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey?  After an ominous start in Bean Town, Carl Crawford needs to step up and redeem the large contract awarded to him after the 2010 season.  There’s a new closer in town too.  Andrew Bailey takes over “Pap’s” closing duties – can he stay upright in a big market?  And then, there’s the colorful new manager, Bobby Valentine.  Will the players respect and respond to him?  If the answer is “no,” it could be a long summer in Boston.  I could easily see this team sliding into fourth place (yes, 4^th!) if things go awry.

Toronto

There seems to be a lot more promise north of the border.  The retro, early 90’s “stencil” style jersey numbers are back… maybe to bring back the good times?  I placed them below Boston for now because the Jays’ talent is a notch below, but not by much.  This team has been rebuilding for awhile, and they’re about to see the fruits of their labor.  Similar to the Nationals, Toronto can greatly benefit from the additional Wild Card.  I like their roster of Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Yunel Escobar, Edwin Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Mathis.  The lineup is buoyed by a strong rotation, consisting of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, and Dustin McGowan – but we’ll see if they can finally make some noise in baseball’s top heavy division.

Baltimore

If I had to do a power rankings of all 30 teams, the Orioles would be at the bottom of the American League, and maybe 29^th overall (Astros).  Another GM that has been out of the game for a decade has come to Baltimore, Dan Duquette.  It seems year after year, the Orioles are like crows, picking up the carcasses of the free agent market.  Is Johnny Damon on the radar?  After the young rotation took a major step back last year, VP Andy MacPhail took a step down.  Everyone is aware that this Buck Showalter’s team with Angelos’ input in the background.  But what is the direction of this team?  When do the Orioles show some promise and stop being the dormant of the division?

NL East is Beast

Winston-Salem, NC – It’s no secret that the American League East has historically dominated the headlines of Major League Baseball.  There’s always drama between the Red Sox and Yankees, and more recently, the Rays have built a little powerhouse under the radar.  This year, by both serendipity and by carefully constructed front office blueprints, the National League East reigns supreme.  Before drilling into each team, let’s take a look at the major headlines.  First, the Florida Marlins became the Miami Marlins this offseason, complete with an image makeover that closely resembles the old “Baseketball” movie jerseys.  The Marlins will also move into a glistening new ballpark in the “Little Cuba” section of Miami.  To couple all of these changes, the Marlins were big spenders in free agency, rare behavior for a typically frugal team.  The Phillies, fresh off another division title and dominant regular season, return with high hopes despite Ryan Howard’s torn ACL in last year’s postseason (he'll be out the first two months of the season).  The Braves, who lost the Wild Card spot on the final day of the regular season a la the Red Sox, are armed with more young arms this season.  A team poised for a breakout season, the Nationals, look to reach the postseason for the first time in franchise history behind a stacked pitching rotation.  Lastly, the lowly Mets remain just that.  It’s odd to see a big market team be strapped by finances, but that is the case when your owner is the victim of a nearly billion dollar Ponzi scheme.  Here’s a rundown of each team in the order that I believe they’ll finish the regular season:

Philadelphia

The Phillies return virtually all of the same pieces as their 103-win team from 2011.  The only difference is that they could not come to terms with closer Ryan Madson (who eventually signed with the Reds).  Combustible Jonathan Papelbon takes over the closing duties for the Phils.  There are not too many holes with this team between the best “Big Three” arms in the rotation, and a deep lineup that features the return of free agent to-be Jimmy Rollins.  I like their chances to clinch the division for the fifth consecutive season if Ryan Howard can produce in the second half of the season.

Atlanta

The pitching rich Braves jettisoned their only weak link on the staff, Derek Lowe, to the Indians.  Pitching was not the problem for the Braves; it was hitting!  However, the Braves got deeper on the mound by adding Randall Delgado to the staff and Brandon Beachy looks like a sleeper middle of the rotation starter at worst.  I like their chances to nab the Wild Card that eluded them last season IF Jason Heyward hits and Chipper Jones can stay healthy.  Dan Uggla needs to continue his power stroke and not rely in a historic hitting streak to prop up his average above the Mendoza line.  The hitting is uber thin, but we all know what pitching can do.  The Braves have also added another jersey to the mix – a vanilla colored thread for Sunday afternoon home games.  The red jerseys will shift to Friday night home games.

Washington

As I’ve said on The Less Desirables podcast before, the extra Wild Card will surely benefit this team more than anyone else.  In a loaded division, the Nationals actually have a fighting chance to make the postseason with two wild cards in play.  Their rotation is stacked – Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and Ching-ming Wang.  Similar to the Braves, this team needs hitting.  Re-signing the franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman was a nice move (despite vastly overpaying), but he needs to put up MVP numbers to justify the dollars and to give DC a chance at a winning record.  Speaking of justifying a contract, where are you Jayson Werth?  This team has a great young nucleus that will be fun to watch for years to come.  We’ll see if Bryce Harper makes the team; if not, we can count on seeing him near the end of May.

Miami

It’s tough to gauge this team given the superb amount of talent, but volatile personalities.  On paper, this team looks dazzling – Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, and Carlos Zambrano comprise an elite rotation.  The signing of Jose Reyes adds more speed and overall offense to the lineup.  Heath Bell has been a solid closer for the past several years in San Diego.  I can’t wait to see (and visit) their new ballpark.  Major questions loom – can the new hot-headed manager Ozzie Guillen “contain” these large personalities?  Will Carlos Zambrano make it a full season?  Will Hanley Ramirez break down at third base?  Does he resent the signing of Reyes?  Can Josh Johnson stay healthy?  Will Mark Buehrle’s make-up dominate National League hitters?  There are more questions than answers with this team.

New York

There is not much good news associated with this team other than their ace pitcher, Johan Santana, is expected to return this season after two plus years of shoulder and elbow problems.  David Wright needs a good season to regain the MVP numbers that seem so far in the past.  What happened to Jason Bay?  The Red Sox were smart not to re-sign him after the 2009 season.  It’s tough to see this team make any noise as the Wilpon ownership group is strapped for cash until a settlement is reached in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. 

RG3 > Peyton

Winston-Salem, NC – On Friday, I had a majority of this blog written, but at the time, the Redskins had not made the trade to acquire the Rams’ first round pick (#2 overall) in this year’s NFL draft.  Therefore, the post was originally titled, “RG3 or Peyton?”  Now, if one thing is for certain, sitting idle at the quarterback position for the Redskins this offseason was not an option.  The NFL Draft Class of 2012 is one of the best talent-wise that analysts and gurus have seen in years, especially at the quarterback position.  Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III combine with Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Kirk Cousins to form the most talent-laden QB pack since 2004 .  But Luck and RG3 are special players – both are smart, athletic (did you see both of their verticals and 40’s at the combine?), built with strong arms, and possess intangibles that are found only in elite signal callers.  This class may be comparable to the draft class of 1998, which featured (at the time) the indistinguishable quarterbacks of Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.  The Colts, just like they will this year, took the safe bet in Manning.  However, it should be noted that Leaf had several off the field problems leading up to the draft.  With the exception of Manning’s rookie year, the Colts have been in contention every year that Peyton has been under center.  The same goes for the Giants and Eli Manning; the Chargers and Philip Rivers, the Patriots and Tom Brady, the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, the Falcons and Matt Ryan, the Saints and Drew Brees, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers… the simple formula is if you have a great QB, your team is going to be in contention on a consistent basis.

Can RG3 be the 4th QB to lead the Skins to a Super Bowl victory?

For this reason, the Redskins were wise to steer clear of the very tempting (but creaky) Peyton Manning.  The trade that the Skins made to send three first round picks and a second round pick to the St. Louis Rams (drafting second behind the Colts) in order to draft RG3 was completely necessary.  Sure, it will hurt not having a first round pick until 2015, but the Redskins need a “franchise” QB to fit the plan of building a “stable” environment for the first time since the early 90’s.  RG3’s off the field record is crisply clean.  He’s fresh off winning the Heisman Trophy, and if you think he’s selfish, then check out his stud block in Baylor’s bowl game this year in the Alamo Bowl versus Washington.  Mike Shanahan has a strong record in developing quarterbacks; see Steve Young, John Elway, and Jay Cutler.  It’s the Redskins’ time to shine on draft day for once.  The fans are hoping that the days when Snyder and Cerrato were calling the shots with that infamous second round of the 2008 draft – selecting three wide receivers – are long gone.  Naturally, I expect growing pains from RG3 during his rookie year.  While Cam Newton raised the rookie bar this past season, struggles are inevitable during a player’s first year, even among the elite quarterbacks today.  The Redskins could do RG3 a favor and sign one (or two) of the top free agent receivers since the receiving corps heading into this offseason are thin.  Vincent Jackson would be the preferred catch (pun intended).  By signing Jackson, the Skins would be recouping the second round pick in the trade (where they could have drafted a receiver).  

Ultimately, we learned who is calling the shots in the front office with this trade.  If it was still Snyder, then we would have seen Manning donning the burgundy and gold.   It must have been tempting for Snyder to make a move considering the Skins’ cap space is at a staggering $49M.  Washington is used to the style of cutting half a dozen players each offseason just to get under the cap.  Now, we can clearly see that Shanahan and Bruce Allen are calling the shots with this trade to draft RG3 in the first round. The timing of this trade could not have been better.  It shows that the Redskins are serious about rebuilding, and it adds a bit of sparkle for a free agent to sign with Washington.  With free agency set to begin on Tuesday, free agents would be deterred from DC as the present quarterback of the team is Rex Grossman.  Now with this deal, the Redskins have a selling point to lure free agents – RG3!  I like the youth movement of this team, and the amount of depth that is beginning to accumulate on both lines.  Speaking of movement, I like the crusade that steers away from big ticket free agents (busts) as well.  Let Peyton go to either Miami, Arizona, or Denver and play well for the next 3-4 years.  With the Skins’ luck, the situation would probably be comparable to another Mark Brunell or Donovan McNabb signing.  With this trade, Washington can now wipe away this endless slate of terrible, or mediocre at best, QB’s – Gus Frerotte, Heath Shuler, Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Tony Banks, Shane Matthews, Danny Wuerffel, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, John Beck, etc.  Let’s get that 10-12 year franchise quarterback – something that has been eluding this franchise since Joe Thiesmann!  RG3 to DC!