Friday, February 27, 2009
Abusing Free Agency Again
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
The 2009 Baltimore Orioles
- Jeremy Guthrie (R), 10-12, 3.63 ERA, 120 K's, 58 BB's, 190.2 IP (2008-BAL) -- The nicest guy in baseball.
- Koji Uehara (R), (2008-JPN) -- I heard this guy was just mediocre in Japan, and he's now passed his prime.
- Rich Hill (L), 1-0, 4.12 ERA, 15 K's, 18 BB's, 19.2 IP (2008-CHC)
- Mark Hendrickson (L), 7-8, 5.45 ERA, 81 K's, 48 BB's, 133.2 IP (2008-FLA)
- Brad Hennessey (R), 1-2, 7.81 ERA, 21 K's, 15 BB's, 40.1 IP (2008-SF)
The only part of the team that has plagued the Orioles more than the starting pitching has been the bullpen. However, with the emergence of George Sherrill as an All-Star closer, and with Chris Ray returning after a year-long stint on the DL, the back-end of the bullpen is suddenly a strength. Jamie Walker, who has been a colossal waste of money, provides very little relief from the left side. Speaking of the southpaws, I like the re-signing of John Parrish, who was very underrated IMO when he last pitched in Baltimore. Let's see if Jim Johnson can step-up and burnish the "set-up man" position this year, or he could be out of the league by season's end.
If you're going to hand-out "long term" contracts, be sure you sign the right player (see Belle, Albert). Another clear sign of progress under the MacPhail administration came this winter when the O's locked-up 4th year player Nick Markakis to a 6 year/$66M deal. This signing demonstrates that the Orioles are interested in winning and they'll lock-up the players that want to be here. For his many years of service and hopefully a few more All-Star seasons left in him, Brian Roberts signed a 4 year/$40M extension. In this market for a 31-year-old second basemen, I think the O's overpaid on this one. It looks silly when Orlando Hudson just signed a deal for $3.4M/year. Carrying on the homegrown talent trend, super prospect Matt Wieters looks primed to be a star in the making. He tore up minor league pitching last year and has a rocket of an arm behind the plate. Look for him to get called up in May (to delay his arbitration eligibility by 1 year) to take over for Gregg Zaun behind the plate full-time. Here's my projected lineup, and it finally has some homegrown talent sprinkled in there:
- Brian Roberts - 2B (S), 0.296, 9 HR, 57 RBI (2008-BAL)
- Adam Jones - CF (R), 0.270, 9 HR, 57 RBI (2008-BAL)
- Nick Markakis - RF (L), 0.306, 20 HR, 87 RBI (2008-BAL)
- Aubrey Huff - 1B (L), 0.304, 32 HR, 108 RBI (2008-BAL)
- Melvin Mora - 3B (R), 0.285, 23 HR, 104 RBI (2008-BAL)
- Luke Scott - DH (L), 0.257, 23 HR, 65 RBI (2008-BAL)
- Cesar Izturis - SS (S), 0.263, 1 HR, 24 RBI (2008-STL)
- Gregg Zaun - C (S), 0.237, 6 HR, 30 RBI (2008-TOR)
- Felix Pie - LF (L), 0.241, 1 HR, 10 RBI (2008-CHC)
The three new acquisitions are placed at the bottom of the order with their main purpose being to play defense. While sitting in the Arizona sun last Spring Training, watching the Cubs take on the Mariners, my good buddy turned to me and mentioned that Felix Pie will be a star someday. I told him that he's the next coming of Corey Patterson, and that he'll probably be traded to the Orioles in the next two or three years or so. I like the young outfield, but I'm not that high on Pie because of his lack of plate discipline. Zaun is merely keeping the catcher's seat warm for Wieters. It was a good move to end all catching rumors by trading away Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for utility man Ryan Freel. Ty Wigginton will supply further depth on the bench as well. As you can see above, I attempted to construct the lineup with the L-R-L alternating combination. However, the power drops considerably in the bottom third.
The Orioles are nowhere close to contending with the big boys in the AL East, but that could change with a Tampa Bay-like run in the next couple of seasons (2011 and beyond). The pitching needs to develop and mature under Rick Kranitz, and an impact bat needs to be added to supplement the excess of speedy batters. For the first time, the progress is measurable -- from the trades for prospects, wise drafting, locking up young stars, and tapping into the foreign markets, the Orioles appear to be on the right, albeit slow track, back to respectability. They are even listening to the fans, by changing the road uniforms to have "Baltimore" across them, and they even incorporated a little Maryland flair in the sleeve patch. Suffice it to say, the Orioles are ahead of the Nationals in their rebuilding project; who would have thought that a year or two ago?
Happy Birthday to avid B's Bistro reader and Baltimore resident Kevin Attridge!
Friday, February 20, 2009
Weekend Reading
Story I -- This New York Times piece was written by Moneyball and The Blind Side author, Michael Lewis, so you know it's a good read. Lewis takes a stab on NBA "Moneyball" pioneer, Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets. I wrote a blog on Morey last year, but I had no information on the metrics and statistics that Morey uses for his NBA roster construction approach. This article parallels Shane Battier to the likes of former Oakland A's first baseman Scott Hatterberg; a lesser talented player bringing out the best of his team.
Story II -- Here's another interesting article that I found on CNN yesterday on how the Arizona Diamondbacks are combating the economic downfall. The ownership group and management team appear to be real winners.
Finally, this clip right here might be the funniest video of a fan caught dancing at a sporting event ever. While the length of the video may indicate that it's staged, it's nevertheless downright hilarious. The Celtics' fans really are having fun these days.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The 2009 Washington Nationals
- John Lannan (L), 9-15, 3.91 ERA, 117 K's, 72 BB's, 182 IP (2008-WSH)
- Scott Olsen (L), 8-11, 4.20 ERA, 113 K's, 69 BB's, 201.2 IP (2008-FLA)
- Daniel Cabrera (R), 8-10, 5.25 ERA, 95 K's, 90 BB's, 180 IP (2008-BAL)
- Collin Balester (R), 3-7, 5.51 ERA, 50 K's, 28 BB's, 80 IP (2008-WSH)
- Shaun Hill (R), 1-5, 5.83 ERA, 39 K's, 23 BB's, 63.1 IP (2008-WSH)
The backbone of the small success that the Nationals have endured since they returned to DC in 2005 has been the bullpen. Up until this season, the Nats could always count on "The Chief," Chad Cordero, to close out games, with big Jon Rauch setting him up. Neither of these players are on the roster this year (Cordero, non-tendered; Rauch, traded to ARZ), which paves the road for Joel Hanrahan (9/13 saves) to be the closer in 2009. Hanrahan will have a bevy of right handed relievers in front of him from the reliable Saul Rivera to Steven Shell to Garrett Mock to Jason Bergmann. I suppose that starting pitching rejects Matt Chico, Mike O'Connor, and Mike Hinckley will supplement the bullpen corps from the left side. The bullpen, like the starting rotation, is about as proven as Barack Obama's political resume; we don't know what to expect.
Aside from the new road jerseys, the front office decided to open the team's checkbook on the most prolific free agent in Nationals' history, Adam Dunn (2 years/$20M). However, the front office must take into consideration that the 2007 season was the aberration, not the injury-riddled 2008 season. In 2007, the team was projected to contend with the 1962 Mets and 2003 Tigers as the worst team in MLB history. Instead, the team outperformed the critics and far exceeded expectations, but sunk like a rock in water in 2008, courtesy of unrealistic expectations and an abundance of injuries. Taking into consideration the glut of outfielders and first basemen, I'll project the Nats' 2009 lineup. However, I'm a huge proponent of the lefty-righty alternation in a lineup, which may not tailor to Manny Acta's mindset.- Cristian Guzman - SS, (S), 0.316, 9 HR, 55 RBI (2008-WSH)
- Nick Johnson - 1B, (L), 0.220, 5 HR, 20 RBI (2008-WSH)
- Ryan Zimmerman - 3B, (R), 0.283, 14 HR, 51 RBI (2008-WSH)
- Adam Dunn - LF, (L), 0.236, 40 HR, 100 RBI (2008-CIN/ARZ)
- Josh Willingham - RF, (R), 0.251, 15 HR, 51 RBI (2008-FLA)
- Lastings Milledge - CF, (R), 14 HR, 61 RBI (2008-WSH)
- Anderson Hernandez - 2B, (S), 0.333, 0 HR, 17 RBI (2008-WSH)
- Jesus Flores - C, (R), 0.256, 8 HR, 59 RBI (2008-WSH)
I believe that the plan is to play Elijah Dukes in right field, shift Willingham to left, Dunn to first base, and have Nick Johnson on the bench. My proposed lineup incorporates the L-R-L alignment, and it produces the highest propensity to generate more runs. Put the on-base machine Johnson in the "2 spot" (where he batted when he was with the Yankees) and contact hitter Zimmerman in the three spot for the big bopper, Adam Dunn cleaning it up. With the acquisitions of Dunn and Willingham, it will allow Milledge and Flores to shift down in the order where they belong (not in the 2-3-4 spots where they were in 2008).
All of the steroids news has taken the glitter off of the Adam Dunn signing for me. I still think the Nats are looking at their lineup more positively than they should. And they continue to do such a bad job of promoting the team. Other than Zimmerman, they could get rid of every other player and no one would have an emotional reason to care. I'm still convinced that they have so many lousy characters that they can't promote them. I can't think of any other reason. Let's use 2009 as a building block for the future. 2008 was a lost year, not only because of the 59-102 record, but more importantly, the top-ranked prospects in the farm system regressed. The front office was $500K apart from signing top pick Aaron Crow (pitcher), yet it continued to dole out worhtless contracts, like the one to Guzman for 2 years/$16M. Blunders, such as extending contracts to Guzman, Dmitri Young (2 years/$5M), and Ronnie Belliard (2 years/$3M), are moves that will continue to take the franchise backwards. In order to move forward, sometimes you have to take a small step backwards -- play the young guys and pay the bonuses for pitchers that you draft. The Lerners must cough up whatever amount Scott Boras dictates they should pay (within legitimate reason) for Steven Strasburg in June's amateur draft. 2008 was not a stepping stone, rather it set the franchise back by two years with player regression and a fruitless draft. Hopefully, 2009 will prove otherwise both in the draft and a few extra wins as a result of some "longballs" along the Anacostia.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Remarks on the UNC-Duke Rivalry
- First, Duke has NO FANS. Everyone from North Carolina pulls for the Tar Heels. Why? Because it's the "public school" and everyone knows somebody or has a relative that went to UNC. Conversely, Duke is a small, private school. Most of the students attending Duke aren't from North Carolina. The fan base is equivalent to a match-up, such as Johns Hopkins-UMD, Vanderbilt-UTenn, or Emory-UGA.
- Second, the rivalry focuses on two schools located in one state. Everybody who I ran into yesterday asked if I was watching the game; it had a "state holiday" feel to it. When I lived elsewhere, say in Atlanta or Maryland, my reaction to the upcoming game was, "Oh, Dickie V. is calling the game tonight."
- Third, people not from NC, will usually pull for anybody playing UNC. The intimidating security guard at my office told me that she wished both teams could lose. She's from Tennessee.
- Fourth, girls who are ambivalent about sports will always choose UNC over Duke because of the school's COLORS. Yes, this bullet may be the most ludicrous item that I've ever blogged, but it's true. This fact only tips the rivalry scale more in UNC's overabundant favor.
- Fifth, upon UNC victory, everyone is measurably nicer and kinder on the following day. People who wouldn't normally wait to hold the door for you, will now wait the extra second.
- Finally, don't plan on going to a Carolina bar when the rivalry is played unless you're pulling for UNC, you love it when people yell on every possession, and girls scream at every UNC bucket.
I had no idea how many UNC fans there are compared to Duke fans. 15:1 ratio would be my guess.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
A Fitting, New Cocktail
- 2 Shots of Grey Goose
- 1 Splash of Water
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
The Braves' Rough Offseason
Aside from a pressing need for another outfielder, the roster of position players is all but set. Behind the plate, there is All-Star catcher Brian McCann. At first base, the slick fielding Casey Kotchman, acquired in the Mark Teixeira deal, is adequate. Across the diamond at third base, there's the legendary Chipper Jones. The middle infielders were supposed to be important cogs in proposed trades. Yunel Escobar, when he is swinging the bat, is an above-average shortstop. He's still here after the failed Peavy talks. Kelly Johnson, the mediocre second baseman, was supposed to shift to left field to make room for Furcal at 2B. In the outfield, Frenchy returns to right field. After such a poor year, he has really fallen out of favor with the front office. If Frenchy struggles early, he will be demoted. After initially flirting with the idea of bringing back Andruw Jones to play center (a bad idea in my book), the Braves will have to hand the keys over to top prospect Jordan Schaefer sometime this year. For now though, look for fellow rookie Josh Anderson to patrol center. The left field situation is all but unsettled; do you go with Matt Diaz? I think the Braves could steal Bobby Abreu off the free agent market and plug him in here. Give him a 3 year-$30M deal, and if he wants more annual salary than $10M, lower the number of years to 2, and the make the total compensation package $24M ($12M AAV).
On paper, the rotation appears to be much improved. The cold separation between John Smoltz and the Braves will be hard to handle if Smoltz performs at a peak level for the Red Sox. The signing of Derek Lowe appeared to be out of desperation, after being spurned by Furcal. I think the Braves could have signed Lowe to a lower price (no pun intended) because their only competition appeared to be the Mets, who were set to re-sign Oliver Perez (overrated). Acquiring Javy Vazquez from the White Sox was an even trade. Vazquez is both durable and effective. Similar to Lowe, he keeps the ball down; a key to pitching at Turner Field. The Braves also dipped in the Asian market to pluck Kenshin Kawakami. These moves enable Jair Jurrjens, the one returning starter, to slot in the middle of the rotation. Further, the Braves can pencil in Jorge Campillo at the end. I like the rotation; however, aside from Campillo, and maybe Tom Glavine re-signing, it's dominated by right handers.
Manny Acosta and Mike Gonzalez comprise a very formidable righty-lefty punch in the bullpen. With the loss of Rafael Soriano, the Braves will need to build more depth in the 'pen.
I'm not sure what to expect from the Braves this season. They have underperformed during the last three seasons. With the Phillies returning the same team this year, and with the Mets finally constructing a bullpen, I'm not sure if the division is within grasp.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Redskins Offseason
The Washington Post did an excellent appraisal of the team's offense in this article, specifically focusing on the offensive line. Buges' has coached this verteran line to its maximum potential. However, because the "front office" is composed of fantasy football managers, and not experienced, capable professionals, the line is overlooked with the paltry number of draft picks every year. In the article, the writers fixated on three moribund franchises in 2007 -- the Falcons, Dolphins, and Ravens (combined 8 wins) -- who made the playoffs in 2008 with very effective drafts. Rather than having a laconic front office full of maladroits, these teams took a step backwards in order to move forwards (except that they all achieved success earlier than expected).
Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have built a "plug n' play" system which, by building depth at every position (including the coaching staff), allows them to plug in a capable player when a starter goes down to injury or ineffectiveness. Their team has never been built "fantasy football style" by loading up on star players at the skill positions. Instead, through shrewd scouting methods, brilliant trades, and solid annual drafts, the Patriots don't need to rely on free agency as a stopgap approach. In this "copycat" league, you would think the Redskins could look on someone else's paper.
Monday, February 2, 2009
XXVII
Growing up, I attended a baseball game in DC -- DC was trying to woo MLB in 1990, but eventually lost out to the Florida and Colorado markets in 1993. The Orioles were playing the A's; starting for the Orioles was #27 Dave Johnson, who now does color analyzing for MASN (or did when I lived in Maryland). The year before the Cowboys beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXVII, the Redskins took down that same Bills team, 37-24. Joe Girardi is wearing #27 because that would be the Yankees' total number of World Series championships should they win again, hopefully not when I'm 27. 27 is also the "peak" age of a professional baseball player, as determined through some complicated formula by Bill James (So why do I have so many injuries from frivolous games, such as dodgeball and kickball? You'd think I was 47 or something.) As far as sports go, 27 is not a very popular uniform number.
27 may not be a special number, but we can all conclude that it's still part of one's "mid-twenties."