Hidden Cash in the Florida Marlins' budget?

Winston-Salem, NC -- I was asked this question the other day, "Where did the Marlins get the cash to sign Hanley Ramirez to a 6 year-$70M contract?" A couple of weeks ago, a contact of mine sent me a copy of the Florida Marlins "P&L" statement from last year (2007). The balance sheet below, compiled by Jorge Costales, CPA of http://www.2thinkgood.com/, is very revealing, and perhaps "misleading" to Phish fans. If the statement is illegible, click here for its direct link.

The Marlins, a classified "poor" team generated $36M of revenue last year. While they've experienced some losses during the past five years, in the end, the Phish still came out $44M in the black. This year, management slashed payroll even further (with the loss of Cabrera and Willis) to $21M from $30M last year. By offering Hanley Ramirez (who could be better than A-Rod one day) a contract with an AAV of $11.67M, the Marlins would increase their payroll by $11.2M ($11.67M - $467K 2008 salary) to $32M. If attendance, TV revenue, and revenue sharing remain the same, the Marlins are still very healthy financially. However, with the new ballpark expected to be ready by 2012-ish, the Marlins can backload the contract so the additional revenue created by the new ballpark will offset the pay-raise at the end of the contract. In the first three years of the contract, the Marlins could pay $4-5M/year. Therefore, team payroll would only increase slightly. And, if the new ballpark falls through, the Marlins could always trade Ramirez (and his market friendly contract) to a mid/big market team.

The Marlins utilized this approach when they were courting Carlos Delgado a few years ago. Here is the structure of Delgado's 4 year-$52M contract:

• 2005: $4M
• 2006: $13.5M
• 2007: $14.5M
• 2008: $16M
• 2009: $16M option, $4M buyout

When the stadium financing fell through at the end of 2005, the Marlins traded Delgado to the big market Mets following the 2005 season. The Marlins were able to escape the larger portions of the deal, though they had to pay the Mets $7M in the deal. I think a similar strategy is in order with the proposed Hanley Ramirez deal. But let's not be fooled; let the numbers (P&L statement) dictate spending, not the mouths of owners.

Mascot Bloopers

Winston-Salem, NC -- There's nothing better than a good ol' fashioned blooper on the baseball diamond. I'm still working on concocting the ultimate highligh reel, but this one was too good to pass up.

• The Cincinnati Reds mascot loosing his head during one of those cheesey mid-inning promotions.
• Upon his return to Philadelphia, Aaron Rowand was reminded of his historic nose-breaking catch in centerfield two years ago by ... The Phillie Phanatic -- the best mascot in all of sports. If anyone can find this video clip of the Phanatic mocking Rowand of the catch, please pass it along.
• Ever wondered how Atlanta's subway system, MARTA, received its name? Check out this video that was sent to me from ol' pal P.K. Agarwalla. If you don't know what MARTA (Metropolitian Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority) stands for, please e-mail me directly.

Finally, here's an excellent Mother's Day piece that I found in yesterday's New York Times. Not to get sentimental on you...

Moneyball to the NBA?

Winston-Salem, NC -- I ran into this fascinating article in the New York Times this week about the front offices of NBA teams hiring stat geeks to build their rosters. My question is: what took so long? The NBA and NFL are both number two behind baseball in terms of being statistics-driven sports. Just like in Moneyball with the Oakland A's expelling the use of the sacrifice bunt and stealing bases in their playbook, Mike Zarren, the Celtics' stats guru, calculated a transposed statistic: the 3-pointer in the corner. If the A's reduce the percentage of making an out (sacrifice bunts, % of caught stealing, etc.), and thereby increasing their on-base percentage, the percentages are in their favor that they'll score a run. Consequently, in basketball, aside from the layup, the most efficient shot is a 3-pointer from the corner. Here, rather than any other point behind the arc, is where the highest percentage of baskets are made. So, be sure to have a 3-point specialist on your team, a la Ray Allen.

Conversely, the A's roster is compiled of thrown away parts who are willing to sacrifice individual statistics for the good of the team. Their job is to get on base -- period. On defense, their role is create outs -- even if the other team is attempting to move runners forward to a base closer to home. Take the sure out over the stellar double play. As Zarren puts it in basketball terms in the article: "What’s one of the most misused, misinterpreted statistics? 'Turnovers are way more expensive than people think,' Zarren says. That’s because most teams focus on the points a defense scores from the turnover but don’t correctly value the offense’s opportunity cost — that is, the points it might have scored had the turnover not occurred.'" Outs are more expensive than moving a runner from first base to second base.

As far as the other statistics that the Celtics and Zarren uses to evaluate players, they are sealed and probably going to the grave with Zarren unless he sells his soul. Within 5 years, we'll see some stat heads manning the front offices of the NFL.

How Tennesseans Order Mulch

Winston-Salem, NC -- Ol' pal and golf-cheating pro, "Tommy B." informed me of how he "helped" his son, er... the neighborhood, order mulch for a proposed single house project. Prior to tackling more important things in life such as restoring used U-Haul trucks and collecting anything that has been made under the sun, Tommy B. was a teacher in the Knoxville, TN school system. Here goes his account, no pun intended, of the infamous mulch story.

"So, [my son] Patrick called me the other morning to help him figure out how much mulch to order for this guy up the street. Patrick got the contract to mulch his gardens and didn't remember from high school how to calculate square feet. I took the opportunity to impress him that we would be dealing in cubic feet, not ordinary ol' square feet.

Patrick had drawn out 4 rectangles and he gave me the length and width of each. He wanted to spread his mulch 3" deep. I multiplied length times width for each rectangle and ended up with a square foot number for each rectangular patch of garden. I then added the four numbers together and ended up with a total of about 520 sq. feet. 3" deep is 1/4 of a foot, so I multiplied 520 sq. ft. times .25 and came up with 130. Then, I double-checked my figures and finally recalculated a third time so there would be no problems. I told Patrick to call and order 130 cubic feet from the nursery (they were going to deliver). Then, I remembered these dump truck guys work in cubic yards, not cubic feet -- so many "yards of dirt." I didn't want the nursery to think they were dealing with a couple of weenies, so I divided 130 by 9, since there are 9 cubic feet in one cubic yard and I ended up with 14-1/2 cubic yards, which Patrick then ordered.

The mulch was delivered this morning and when Patrick got off work at 2pm, he and his friend, Kemp, went up the street to spread the mulch while I babysat with Baby Kaylee. Patrick and Kemp showed up at dusk and Pat told me to drive up the street as I was leaving and look at the nice job they did and that somehow they still had a lot of mulch left over, even after spreading it a little thicker than 3". I assured him the doofus running the loader had put too much mulch in the delivery truck, but maybe he could find somebody else to sell the extra to. I said my good-byes and drove by the house and saw a pile of mulch sitting in this guy's driveway as big as my van. It was huge! Totally bumfuzzled by the outcome of events, I went home and got thoughty as to what might have happened to leave us with so much extra mulch. Patrick obviously had not given me the correct numbers to begin with or else the nursery needed to hire a new phone guy. Halfway through my beer, I came to the realization there are 27 cubic feet in 1 cubic yard, not 9. Dividing by 27, instead of by 9, we should have ordered 5 cubic yards, not 14-1/2. I ordered three times as much as we needed! That dumptruck must have been the size of a house. Now I'm on the hook to shovel all this extra mulch into several loads for my small pickup truck and pay this guy back for 2/3 of the mulch bill! I've got enough mulch left over to cover the neighborhood! Patrick told his customer that he (Patrick), would park his car in front of the mulch pile tomorrow so nobody would steal it, because the customer doesn't want Patrick to work on Sunday. So, I've got to give up my car tomorrow, and shovel all the mulch by myself on Monday because Patrick will be working then. I hope this guy has a sense of humor. - Yikes!

My Bruce Springsteen Review

Winston-Salem, NC -- Last night, I had the good fortune to attend the Bruce Springsteen Magic Tour concert at the Greensboro Coliseum. It was easily the best show that I ever attended for not knowing half of the songs. The melodies and rhythm are very rich, in that, you can parse all nine instruments by the naked ear. Bruce Springsteen, for his age, is extremely mobile (Bono-esque mobility). Little Steven and Nils Lofgren are amazing guitar players. During "Trapped," Bruce and Little Steven were exchanging the lead of the solo guitar section. Max Weinberg has his own unique style of playing drums. His elbows are never raised above his heart. He makes playing the drums look so easy. Here's the set list from the nearly 3 hour show:

Roulette*

Don't Look Back*

Radio Nowhere

Out In The Street

The Promised Land

Magic

Gypsy Biker

It's Hard To Be A Saint In The City

Trapped

Because The Night

Darkness On The Edge Of Town

She's The One

Livin' In The Future

Mary's Place*

Waitin' On A Sunny Day

Devil's Arcade

The Rising

Last To Die

Long Walk Home

Badlands

---

Backstreets

Bobby Jean

Born To Run

Ramrod

American Land

* = Tour Premiere

I really had no idea how a significant portion of Bruce's lyrics are about America, heartland, and the seasons. But, I guess, if you stop to think about it, look at the classics -- Born in the USA, Glory Days, The River, Hungry Heart, Secret Garden, etc.

I've always had the theory that a show is a hundred times better when you're standing on the general floor, rather than having a seat. You're not liable to sit down during some songs (so the grouch behind you can see) and standing up during the fast-paced ones. You can "dance" to the music -- another way for you to enjoy the music. But you're suspect to that "know-it-all" fan, who stood behind me singing obnoxiously loud to every song. Although, while he would yell out the song title at the start of the first chord of the guitar, he reminded everyone around him that it was a new set list from last night's show in Charlotte. I definitely enjoyed the music and show, despite standing on concrete for 4 hours and listening to the president of the Springsteen fan club attempt to sing every lyric in my right ear. Ah... glory days!

"Pulling an A.C. Slater"

Winston-Salem, NC – This blog will deviate from its traditional content in order to address one of the greatest discoveries in the history of western civilization. This innovation was brought to my attention by my brother, Kevin, as it was passed down to him from his good buddy and ol' college pal, Dave Schmidt. One of the most common and natural items on our daily, sometimes weekly, agenda is to “use the can.” It’s a simple 3-step process that usually steals a couple of minutes from our day. But, why not enjoy the moment by pulling an “A.C. Slater?” Yes! – the A.C. Slater, played by Mario Lopez in the early 90’s hit show, Saved By The Bell. If you remember correctly, A.C. always sat in his chair backwards – it was the cool thing to do. With everything related to fashion in a full throwback mode, why not “pull an A.C. Slater” and sit backwards on the can? By performing this move, you’ve set yourself up with a “lounge” table to prop up your magazines and books or hold a cold drink, all while conducting your business. Why not knock out a few pages in your novel? Economically speaking, this time alone could be referred to as “sunk time,” a la the economic term, “sunk cost;” a cost already incurred and paid for – there is no getting it back. By “pulling an A.C. Slater,” you could save more time (reading, consuming food and/or drink) and hence more money by simply turning your body around on the pot.

It has been reported that the founder of this innovation has taken it to an extreme. Due to side walls and spacing conditions, Dave has purportedly hired a contractor to cut some portions of his bathroom wall in order to accommodate his discovery. I, myself, was curious if this move would work, and I can report with great affirmation that The A.C. Slater indeed does succeed in all of the attributes written above. Try it yourself and share your results in the “comments” section below.

New Plates

Winston-Salem, NC -- In April 2007, the State of North Carolina altered the color of their long-standing license plates. The only item that changed was the color of the letters and numbers that comprise the seven character field (WTF-5505 in the image below). The color changed from blue to red to look something like this:

According to NC DOT, the main purpose of the color change was to increase the visibility of 7 characters to other motorists and law enforcement officers. Ok... wouldn't you just issue some brand new license plates to the applicable drivers with paint scratches rather than issuing new plates to the entire state? If you're going to change the plate and issue the entire population some fresh ones, why not do a complete makeover? Are the prisons throughout our state really this crowded? They look exactly the same as the old plates:

Aside from those redneck pick-up trucks where you can barely decipher what state they're from, here's the real reason why North Carolina only changed the color of their "new" license plate: Political. We want to be known as a red state, not a lefty-swinging blue state!

Nationals Park

Winston-Salem, NC -- The recap of my first visit to Nationals Park is short, but it goes something like this:

The plush green Kentucky grass blends in perfectly with the park's building materials; a sandstone backdrop behind home place and marble walls for the exterior. The jumbrotron (the world's second largest HDTV (to Atlanta's Turner Field's)) is simply amazing. You could see a player's hair pixel in the screen. The curly "W" clock is a nice touch as well.

The knocks against the park are shown in the picture below. If you check out the "Presidential Suites," they are empty! Who wants to pay $300 per game to sit behind home plate for a team only winning 25% (5-15) of their games? The area makes the ambiance look dead. Also, I didn't take a photo of the area outside of the ballpark behind left field. Under contruction, there is a 10-story luxury apartment building that is blocking the view of the Capitol Dome. Why would the DC Government allow a project of this size to take place when the District itself ponied up $611M for this beautiful facility? Similar to the beautiful retro parks -- Camden Yards, Progressive Field (The Jake), Busch Stadium, Coors Field -- I was hoping that the ballpark would "open up" to the city skyline. Having the city's skyscrapers (in DC's case, the monuments) in the backdrop, it directly links the ballpark atmosphere to the city itself. As a fan, you feel like you're getting a full tablespoon of the city's charm while taking in a game; win or lose. I'd take that ideal setting over the hundreds of exclusive DC restaurant food stands that are currently littered around the concourses.

Baseball Notebook

Winston-Salem, NC – Here are my notes on the first three weeks of the baseball season:

• Nationals Park is beautiful. With the metro stop dumping you in left field, it reminds me a bit of PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The ballpark “opens up” to the downtown.

• The front office of the Nats needs to reduce the price of the “Presidential Club” suites from $300 to $100. Having a plethora of empty seats around home plate looks awful on TV.
• The Braves made a great move by not re-signing Andruw Jones. He looks awful in Los Angeles – so awful that Juan Pierre might take his job. Good move by the Dodgers to sit Pierre despite his bloated contract. Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times said it best recently when describing Colletti's frustrating approach: "The outfield overload reflects the Dodgers' approach under General Manager Ned Colletti: We won't trade our best prospects, but we won't necessarily play them. We'll import veterans and let the kids play when an opportunity arises. We won't hand a kid a job at any time, for any length of time." Sunk costs.
• The Tigers will be back. If this losing streak occurred in July and not at the opening of the season, it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.
• Of course C.C. Sabathia has to have an ERA close to his weight during the one year that I select him in my fantasy draft.
• Miguel Tejada is 33, not 31. Could you not tell by all of the creases on his face?
• Worst contract ever? Barry Zito or Mike Hampton? Lesson learned – don’t hand nine figure contracts out to mediocre pitchers.
• Best pitching rotation: Toronto Blue Jays? Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum could go up against anybody.
• The Braves have some injury issues to their staff – Glavine and Hampton – but nobody is separating themselves from the rest of the pack in the NL East. We’ll be ok.

Kickball Returns (and so does something else...)

Greensboro, NC -- The 2007 City of Greensboro Kickball Champions took to the field last night to defend their lofty title. Playing a "new" team to the league served as a nice warm-up for Opening Night. The Ball Busters pitched a shutout through 7, and put up 5 runs in the first inning to easily win 8-2. After being a little antsy after two rainouts, I kicked a triple in my first "at-kick." A pop-up to the middle infield/short right field caused me to tag up for a sacrifice fly. The problem was their catcher, a girl was blocking the plate at the exact same time that the ball was incoming and that I was running down the third base line. I slid, took the girl out as if I pulled the rug out from underneath her, and scored. She landed on top of me. "Just ask for her number next time, Attridge" shouts a teammate.

In the 8th inning with 2 outs, one of their players kicked (or sliced) a ball with some wicked backspin in my direction at first base. I caught the ball with my hands, but the impact of the ball bent the top portion of my right pinkie finger backwards. The bone fell out of joint and I popped it back in. After a trip to the ER last night and a splint placed on the pinkie, it was determined today by the orthopaedist that I dislocated my right pinkie finger and that I would need 3 micro screws inserted in surgery. Out 4-6 weeks. Just like my torn hamstring last fall, this latest injury occurred on Opening Night. I'm going "under the knife" on Tuesday. I'm currently sporting a Carolina blue cast. I can barely type and I'm using the mouse with my left hand.

Another Opening Night, another injury...

A First in the NBA?

Winston-Salem, NC -- I usually don't cover the NBA in this blog, but I read this fascinating story on ESPN.com the other day that bears repeating. The star point guard of the Washington Wizards, Gilbert Arenas, wants to take a paycut in order to keep the team intact with pending free agents on the horizon. Arenas, who has only played in a few games this year, will opt out of his current contract to become a free agent. However, F Antawn Jamison is a free agent following this season. Arenas told the Wiz's management to pay Jamison FIRST before paying him. Further, Arenas will take whatever is left over after Jamison is paid, even if that means taking a paycut. The thinking behind this move is that Arenas wants to keep the core of the Wiz intact (Arenas-Jamison-Butler). My first belief is building a long term successful team is "continuity." You can add star players to any roster, and with a few exceptions (2008 Boston Celtics), they'll always fail -- see the Redskins every year. Teams with continuity in their front offices, coaching staffs, and roster always succeed -- Spurs, Mavericks, Suns, and Jazz.

Look, Arenas is a month older than me, so even if he signs a short term contract (1, 2, or 3 years), he'll still be able to score a long-term contract before he hits the wrong side of 30. This offseason will be the last opportunity for Jamison (age 31) to secure a big time contract. No team is going to sign him for the amount that he's making now ($16.4M), but 6 years-$60M isn't poor man's money. If all goes according to (Arenas's) plan this offseason for the Wiz, I will personally buy an Arenas jersey this summer.

Opening Days

Winston-Salem, NC -- Before I expand on my Opening Day thoughts in a separate blog, I wanted to make this point. The Nats won a thrilling opener, 3-2, thanks to some late inning heroics by the franchise cornerstone, Ryan Zimmerman. It was, quite possibly, the best way to christen a brand new ballpark. Conversely, the Orioles opened their season yesterday with a 6-2 loss to the Rays. According to separate reports, the ballpark was 2/3 full. The energy and emotion inside of Camden Yards appeared to have been sucked out and infused along the banks of the Anacostia River in DC.

Maybe this was a sign to Peter Angelos that "this is what you get" for trying to implement an artificial blockade around DC to prevent a MLB franchise from moving there. Those days of sucking DC dollars are over. If ol' Peter had kept his hands to himself, his team may actually be contending, rather than initiating another rebuilding year. Yes, the Nats would have came to town regardless, but at least the Orioles could compete for the region's fans because their product on the field would be contending (and entertaining).

I don't mean to keep taking shots at ol' Peter, but sometimes it's too easy. The Nats have their own flaws, but when that farm system begins to reap the rewards of building through the draft and trading pricey veterans; look out NL East!

By refusing to catch the President's opening pitch on Sunday night, Paul Lo Duca (admitted steroid user) missed the opportunity to practice one more warm-up pitch. Maybe he would have prevented that passed ball in the 9th inning if he had the one extra practice throw. Food for thought.

2008 MLB Predictions

Winston-Salem, NC – The Thursday before Opening Day is always circled on my calendar for one reason: MLB Predictions Day with Pearl! Without further ado, let me roll out this year’s picks:

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det.
NL MVP: Matt Holliday, OF, Col.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Det.
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, NYM

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
NL Rookie of the Year: Jayson Nix, 2B, Col.

Surprise Team: Cincinnati Reds

Playoffs:
AL: Tigers over Red Sox
Angels over Yankees
Tigers over Angels

NL: Diamondbacks over Braves
Mets over Cubs
Diamondbacks over Mets

World Series: Tigers over Diamondbacks

NL East Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – The last division that I’ll be covering is also my favorite. The NL East has some genuine contenders in the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. With all of these foolish predictions by players in the division, it’s time to shake out the pecking order…

1. New York Mets
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

I believe that I would have switched the 1 and 2 seeds if it weren’t for the Mets’ acquisition of Johan Santana. Some key things need to happen for the Mets to recapture the division back from the Phillies. The aging vets – Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, and Luis Castillo must stay healthy. The back end of the rotation must pull through – John Maine (who has had an excellent spring), Oliver Perez, and El Duque. And finally, the bullpen must stabilize, starting with Billy Wagner. But I think with the Santana trade, the Mets helped stabilize the weakest part of their team last year, starting pitching.

Here’s hoping that Tom Glavine still has a little fuel left in the tank. Aside from John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, the Braves couldn’t get any quality starting pitching last year. Signing Glavine and plugging him into the 3 slot helps and I love the trade of Renteria to the Tigers for Jair Jurrjens – not a strikeout pitcher, but somebody to sure up the back-end of a week rotation. This team can mash starting with the back-to-back switch hitting combo of Jones and Texeira. Keep an eye out for Yunel Escobar at short, he can play. I like the Braves as the representative for the Wild Card in the National League.

Coupled with the Mets choking down the stretch and an amazing September run, the Phillies just barely squeezed by the Mets to capture the NL East crown last season. The Phillies two best starters, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, are injury-prone. Who knows that the Phils will get out of Brad Lidge at the closer position. Rollins, Utley, and Howard can’t all have career years again together. I seem this team regressing to the middle of the pack.

Aside from the Rays, the Nats had one of the best offseasons of any team. Yes, they’re taking on some risk with problematic, but talented outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. This team is still two years away from contention; it’ll take that long to allow the stockpile of young pitchers at the A-class level to mature and develop. I believe in “The Plan.” Who’s going to throw out the first pitch at the new Nationals Park? We know it’s not John Patterson.

The Marlins are also conducting a rebuilding project of their own in hope of reaping the rewards in time for their proposed new ballpark. The two biggest pieces of the team, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, were moved to Detroit in exchange for two talented young players Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Don’t overlook this team though… Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs are a nice, young infield core. If Jeremy Hermida could stay healthy, this team would be building a deep lineup for the near future. Still, I predict a basement finish for the Phish in 2008.

AL East Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – We move to the eastern divisions during the next two days. Starting with quite possibly the “toughest” division in all of baseball, the AL East, how can you not initiate the conversation without the Red Sox and Yankees? With the Blue Jays always labeled as the “sleeper” team and the “Rays” developing into a gulp, “contender possibility,” this division will be a meat grinder until the end. Oh yeah, the Orioles play in this division too. Here’s the grand finish…

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
   

Last year, I accurately predicted that the Red Sox would win the division because of their superior starting pitching. With Schilling out, Beckett hurt, and Colon struggling, that isn’t the case anymore. The Yankees – with no major free agent acquisition – will win the division this year based on their starting pitching: Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Mussina. We all know their lineup is stacked with perhaps on the Tigers trotting out a better one. And finally, they have that 8th inning bridge to Rivera in the 9th that they’ve been lacking since they were winning World Series titles in Joba Chamberlain.

Call it the “World Series hangover,” but the Sox almost choked down the stretch to the Yankees last summer. They barely hung on despite beating up on the Yankees early on in the season and possessing a 14½ game lead in June. While the same lineup is back, the starting pitching took a hit with some spring training injuries. This team still oozes talent, especially in its young players: Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buckholz, Lester. I’ll give them the Wild Card.

The Blue Jays never lack in talent; it’s always that one key player gets hurt and their season is derailed. Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Chacin, and Marcum comprise a formidable rotation. Still, this team needs major contributions from its veterans, Thomas, Wells (earn that contract!), Rolen, Eckstein, Overbay, and Rios. All of these guys are capable of producing big numbers – the question is if they can stay healthy and out of prolonged slumps.

The Rays have a fine system in place – yes fine. If a media member calls them the “Devil Rays,” they are fined $1.00. That dollar goes to charity, but it shows you that the “Rays” have fully changed the culture of their organization. I think this will be the year where the organization takes a step forward, but they’ll need another year or two after this one to be a legitimate contender. There’s been a lot of talk about this team and here’s why: check out the rotation.

• Kazmir
• Shields
• Garza
• Sonnastine
• Jackson

How about this lineup…

• Crawford, LF
• Iwamura, 2B
• Upton, CF
• Pena, 1B
• Floyd, DH
• Longoria, 3B – will probably be sent down to Triple A to avoid a “super 2” situation
• RF (Baldelli is out indefinitely)
• Navarro, C
• Bartlett, SS

If the Rays can sure up the bullpen (signing Troy Percival augments the pen), they could be a force to be reckoned with.

By trading away some pricey veterans (Tejada, Bedard, Roberts?), the Orioles have put up the white flag on the 2008 season. This team won’t be ready to compete until 2010 if Angelos can keep his hands off the rebuilding process. The rotation is a mess – Guthrie (one year wonder?), Loewen (basically injured all of last year), Cabrera (erratic), and Trachsel (a below average veteran). The lineup has some pieces, but not many. Markakis needs to get off to a hot start unlike the past two seasons. Who will start at shortstop? If the O’s do trade Roberts to the Cubs, why not swing a deal with the Nats for one of their extra mid infielders – Lopez, Belliard, or Guzman? I’ll go out of a limb and say 65 wins for this squad.

NL Central Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – Switching leagues today, we’ll take a look at the NL Central division. Last season, the Cubs spent around $360M to overhaul their roster after a dismal 2006 season. It paid immediate dividends as they captured the NL Central crown. I figure that the Brew Crew will again make some noise this year as well. The remaining four teams still have their work cut out for them – some more than others. Here’s the 2008 lineup…

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
   

I can’t see any team matching up to the Cubs in both pitching and hitting. Their lineup is pretty well rounded. As I mentioned before, I still think Felix Pie is the next Corey Patterson; a ton of hype and speed, but nothing else. Ramirez, Theriot, DeRosa (Brian Roberts by Opening Day, maybe?), Lee can all mash and possess Gold Gloves. Japanese import Kosuke Fukodome, along with Soriano adds both power and speed. Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Dempster, and Marquis form a solid rotation. The only question mark on this team is who will be the closer; Carlos Marmol or Kerry Wood?

The Brewers made a nice run last year until they faded down the stretch. They may have the best lineup in the division and one of the best stables of young players out of any team. However, the beer men lack starting pitching depth. When ace Ben Sheets goes down again (as always), who will step up? Gallardo (9-5, 3.67 ERA), Suppan (12-12, 4.62 ERA), Bush (12-10, 5.12 ERA)? The starting pitching depth will haunt the Brewers all season.

It was only a couple of years ago that the Astros has one of the best rotations in the game (Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte, Miller) and no offense to complement it. Now, it’s a role reversal with Oswalt being the last man standing. Berkman, Tejada, and Lee are a powerful trio in the middle of the lineup. However, you can’t tell me Backe, Rodriguez and Williams are sufficient starters.

This season will be one of rebuilding for the Cardinals. Their top two pitchers, Carpenter and Mulder are on the shelf. Pujols has an impending elbow ligament surgery that he’s trying to avoid. The heart and soul of the World Series team are all but gone; Eckstein, Rolen, and Edmonds have left via free agency and trades. Look, the Cardinals aren’t going to be competitive this year; why not have Pujols get the surgery over now and come back at full strength for a reloaded 2009 team?

The Reds added some nice pieces this offseason by subtracting offense (Hamilton) and adding pitching (Volquez, Cordero). The Reds are still a season or two from being competitive, but it’ll be fascinating to watch star prospect Jay Bruce take over in center field. The Reds won’t be hurting for hitting with the return of Dunn, Griffey, Phillips, and Freel. The best thing that could happen this season for the Reds would be to develop their young pitching – Volquez, Bailey, and Cueto.

The Pirates (finally) pulled the plug on GM Dave Littlefield. Littlefield was responsible for several botched free agent signings and trades (Matt Morris) and poor drafting. Frank Coonelly takes over as President of the Bucs. In addition to Coonelly, fresh off a stint as Major League Baseball's chief labor counsel, Neal Huntington took over the GM position and John Russell takes over for Jim Tracy as manager. Huntington comes from the very successful Cleveland Indians organization where he was an assistant to GM Mark Shapiro. I firmly believe that having intelligent baseball people running the front office will result in more wins on the field. Unfortunately, at this time, there’s not enough talent on the field to compete. Give the Pirates three years and they’ll have this ship turned around (no pun intended).

AL Central Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC – In today’s breakdown, we’ll take a look at the toughest division to predict, the AL Central. There are two powerhouses at the top, the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers. The White Sox may be the most difficult team to predict where they’ll finish. With the Twins regressing to the bottom with the losses of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, coupled with the major strides made by the Kansas City Royals, this division is a toss-up in stacking order. I’ll take my best shot here:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals
   

The Tigers, with quite possibly the best lineup in the majors, appears to be the team to beat. Check out this stacked lineup:

1. Granderson, CF
2. Renteria, SS
3. Sheffield, DH
4. Ordonez, RF
5. Cabrera, 3B
6. Guillen, 1B
7. Polanco, 2B
8. Rodriguez, C
9. Thames, LF

I think their pitching staff is underrated. It didn’t match their performances of the 2006 season when they made an appearance in the World Series. Still, I’d take Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson any day of the week.

The Indians came within one game from winning the AL pennant. Their lineup is very balanced with speed at the top – Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera – and power in the middle – Hafner, Martinez, and Garko. The Indians also possess a powerful 1-2 punch in their pitching staff with reigning AL Cy Young Winner C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. With Westbrook, Byrd, and Lee, the Indians have a well above-average staff.

I’m not sure what to expect out of the White Sox this year. Clearly, they need pitching and they’ll be fine. A trio of Buerhle, Vazquez, and Contreras is formidable, but what are they going to get out of John Danks and Gavin Floyd? A lineup featuring Swisher, Dye, Konerko, Crede, Orlando Cabrera, and Thome will have no problem scoring runs.

I can never count out the Twins because of their front office proficiency. However, with the retirement of talented GM Terry Ryan and the botched trade of Johan Santana to the Mets, I’m unsure where this team lies. Delmon Young can flat out rake. Cuddyer, Mauer, and Morneau will be pumping runs across the board all season. But take a look at their current staff: Liriano (didn’t pitch last year), Bonser (8-12, 5.10 ERA last year), Baker (9-9, 4.26 ERA last year), and rookie Kevin Slowey. That rotation spells a .500 season.

The Royals definitely have a game plan thanks to the mastermind GM Dayton Moore. Who would’ve thought that Gil Meche would be the stalwart starter that only Moore predicted? Greinke, Bannister, and De La Rosa are learning on the job. The lineup is full of young players in Gordon, Buck, Butler, Teahen, Pena, and Gload waiting to breakout. Their new manager, Trey Hillman, is a players’ coach. Read his biography if you get the chance and see how he performed managing in Japan during the past couple of years. I think this team is one year behind the Rays in terms of development and waiting to make some noise in the division.

NL West Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC -- We switch leagues now and head over to the NL West, arguably the toughes division to predict. With the exception of the Giants, this division houses four legitimate contenders. The Rockies, fresh off an appearance in the World Series, are still very young and strong. The D-Backs, with the acquisition of Dan Haren and an appearance in the NLCS, will be back. The Dodgers, with the addition of Joe Torre, will be in the mix. And, let's not forget the Padres, who have a great 1-2 punch in Peavy and Chris Young, and the best bullpen in the game. Here's my rundown...

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Diego Padres
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Francisco Giants

I like the D-Backs because of their blend of youth mixed with seasoned veterans. They have two aces in Webb and Haren, and a wild card in Randy Johnson. Their lineup isn't stacked, but it's solid. They have a thirst to get back in the postseason, especially after having a bad taste lest in their mouths by the red hot Rockies.

The Padres will be in the thick of the race until the end. If Chris Young can remain injury-free, I see this team taking Arizona until the final game. Their outfield offense is a bit weak, but it'll be their pitching that carries them.

There's something about teams reaching/winning the World Series, and then having a hangover the next season. I'm predicting just that with the Rockies. Their starting pitching is a little suspect. They are the converse to the Padres; there bats will carry this team as far as it will go.

I like the hiring of Joe Torre and all, but I don't think the Dodgers have the pieces to be a legitimate contender. They have strong starting pitching and that's about it. Garciaparra, Furcal, Kent, and Ethier are all injury-prone. Who knows what kind of production they'll get out of Andruw Jones? Matt Kemp is a star in the making.

The Giants, as their own manager calls them, are horrific. See my earlier blog about Rowand. They aren't even worth mentioning.

AL West Breakdown

Winston-Salem, NC -- B's Bistro is starting his divisional predictions with the AL West because, other than the NL Central, it's probably the easiest division to predict. Here goes the rundown:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland A's
4. Texas Rangers

The Angels are the "powerhouse" of the division. If I owned a baseball team, I'd run it the same way that Angels owner Arte Moreno runs it; solid drafting, using free agency for complementary pieces, making ballpark tickets and food affordable, and creating a branded marketing plan around town. Lackey, Jered Weaver, Escobar, and Ervin Santana are a rock solid rotation. On the hitting side, the Angels finally found some protection for Vlad in Torii Hunter. I can't see the M's catching up with this first class organization.

The Mariners added a nice pitching piece in Erik Bedard to round out their above-average rotation. Still, I don't think that Felix Hernandez, Bedard, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista are enough to surpass the Angels. They're too many holes in the lineup. Wilkerson is a liability in rightfield and Sexson is a strikeout machine at first base. Remember when Sexson went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of a fantasy baseball draft? There's not enough offense to contend legitimately.

The A's sold all of their marketable parts -- Nick Swisher, Mark Kotsay, and Dan Haren -- to restock the farm system. I still think that the A's will nudge the Rangers in the fight to stay out of the cellar. Their pitching staff with Harden healthy still isn't bad -- Harden, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, and Lenny DiNardo. It'll keep them from finishing below the Rangers.

The Rangers still don't get the memo. They overpay for mediocre arms in free agency and load up on bats. I think Michael Young will bounce back after a subpar year at SS. I'd like to see one of my favorite players Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia step up into superstar status. This team has no true ace; no, Kevin Millwood doesn't count. It's another year in the basement for the Rangers until they start scouting, drafting, and developing quality starting pitching.

Spring Training Wrap-Up

Greensboro, NC -- I arrived back to Carolina last night after spending the last four days in the greater Phoenix area. Aside from the two dozen strawberry mojitos, poolside sunbathing, and a round of golf at the luxurious We-Ko-Pa golf course, we did manage to catch some ballgames in Arizona.

• Had a half slab of ribs and half a chicken at the famous Don and Charlie's restaurant in Scottsdale. We saw Steve Stone there taking in a meal. Upon entering the restaurant, the foyer is covered with autographed photos of Don and Charlie standing next to a famous athlete or celebrity. The wall ranged from Oprah to Dan Patrick to the Monday Night Football crew to Mike D'Antoni to Peter Forsberg to Hammerin' Hank Goldberg holding a drumstick.
• Took in the Cubs-Mariners game from HoHoKam Park (Cubs) in Mesa. The Cubs won 6-4. Saw a couple of Mariner relievers warming up in the pen close up, but judging by their high uniform numbers, I don't think we'll see them in the majors.
• You heard it hear first: Felix Pie is the next Corey Patterson... a ton of hype, but ultimately a bust.
• We were chilling out at the ultra cool Fairmont Hotel bar (where we stayed) when two guys (holding hands) came up and sat next to me as I was engaged in a conversation with Pearl. They overheard us talking about baseball and such. While the gay act was ultimately about to make me the butt of their joke, we quickly learned that the famous father-son umpire tandem was introducing themselves to us, Paul and Brian Runge. Paul was actually the union crew chief for two years in the mid-1990's. We drilled the father and son with questions for about 30-40 minutes. Brian actually shared a pretty cool story with us. He was the umpire who stepped in between the 3rd base umpire and Lou Piniella last year when Sweet Lou threw his first and only tirade to date with the Cubs. About a week later, Piniella sent each umpire an apology letter in the mail and meant no hard feelings whatsoever. We also learned that as soon as family is brought into the argument, that player or coach is immediately ejected from the game. All and all, a pretty cool experience.
• Brian's umpire number is 71. I'm allowed to yell at him if we're at the same game and he'll see about taking me down to the clubhouse.

If you're a baseball fan, Arizona is a sweet destination to soak in spring training. 77 degrees and no humidity prevents you from being crabby regardless of your mood. Everyone in Scottsdale was talking baseball, and that's something that you cannot beat.

Spring Training

Phoenix, AZ -- I finally made it out here to Arizona after sleeping through my alarm for my original flight. I missed the A's-Cubs game because of my ineptitude. Today, we're checking out the Cubs-Mariners from HoHoKam Park -- the Cubs spring training site. More details on the game and site will follow.

I saw my first cactus within 2 minutes of arriving here. They're located on the airport grounds. However, I did not know that Arizona had palm trees. We're staying in Scottsdale; this place must be the ritzy side of town. It's full of upper class dining and shops. We ran into Steve Stone, the White Sox new television analyst and a personal TV favorite, at dinner last night. Word is that we just missed Alfonso Soriano at the bar "E4" when we walked in. For the record, it was "Latin Night" at this particular swanky bar.

More to follow from Arizona...

U23D

Winston-Salem, NC – Last week, I saw the incredible “U23D” movie which was basically like having a front row seat to the world’s best live show. In this glossy, 3D movie (yes, you get your own cool Bono-esque 3D shades), U2 performs 14 of their most mainstream songs from their most recent tour, The Vertigo Tour, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The 3D effects place the audience on mobile pedestals built around the stage. During “Love and Peace or Else,” animation facetiously comes into play as Bono mimics turning the volume of a television down. Subsequently, in “Sunday Bloody Sunday,” the audience and the instrumented are phased out as Bono pleads, “No More (war, hunger).”

There was another unique aspect that I caught during the encore. No matter how many shows U2 plays and no matter how many edits take place of the filming itself, there is a major error in “The Fly.” In the opening guitar riff, Edge’s echoic guitar malfunctions. In the background, you can hear The Edge screaming for Dallas (his guitar technician) that the guitar is broken. To buy some time, Bono asks the crowd, “Where is the fly?” I thought that it was pretty cool that U2 intentionally threw that breakdown in the movie. If you were in the crowd, you would have never noticed that there was a technical difficulty.

By memory, here is the set list:

• Vertigo
• Beautiful Day
• New Year’s Day
• Sometimes You Can’t Make It On Your Own
• Love and Peace or Else
• Sunday Bloody Sunday
• Bullet the Blue Sky
• Miss Sarajevo
• Pride (In the Name of Love)
• Where the Streets Have No Name
• One
• The Fly
• With or Without You
• Yahweh

Go check it out; it’s worth the price of admission.

The Brave Triumphate

Greensboro, NC -- If you're a baseball fan, you shouldn't go a day without reading the daily blog of Buster Olney. Olney brought up a great point today in the possibility of the three former Braves stalwarts, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz all retiring in the same year.

Both Maddux and Glavine will be turning 42 this year, and Smoltz will be turning 41. Maddux has 357 career victories, placing him 7 wins behind Roger Clemens. Glavine has 303 wins, and Smoltz has 207 with 154 career saves. Between the three of them, they have seven Cy Youngs. Conceivably, all three could return in 2009 with their respective clubs. However, all three could retire at season's end. I'm always a proponent for a "good" storyline. Wouldn't it be great if all three retired after the same season and were inducted into the Hall-of-Fame together? Unlike fellow pitchers and friends Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, none of these three pitchers has been linked to the steroid scandal that has plagued baseball during their time. However, you could almost compare Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz to David Halberstam's book, "The Teammates." Halberstam illustrates how four teammates for the Red Sox, Ted Williams, Johnny Pesky, Bobby Doerr, Dominic DiMaggio, were best friends both on and off the field. That friendship carried all four of them through difficult times, especially during the 1946 World Series heartbreaking loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. It lasted all the way up until Williams' death in 1999.

The current differences among the three are where they're slotted in thir respective rotations. Glavine couldn't stand being away from Atlanta, even after his icy ending in 2002. He'll gladly slide in as the number three starter for the Braves. Similarly, Maddux doesn't have to be, nor is he the ace that he once was for the Braves. He can mentor the two young stud pitchers, NL Cy Young Winner Jake Peavy and Chris Young, from the third starter spot. Conversely, Smoltz still has an above average fastball and a dominant splitter. The latter does cause an enormous strain on his elbow. By cutting out the simulated games and reducing the number of spring training starts, Smoltz hopes to build some endurance for the full season. The Braves will need it if they're going to challenge the Mets and Johan Santana.

Stan's Man

Winston-Salem, NC -- Can you believe that this man is running a $100M baseball operation? I guess when you make some shrewd roster moves, have the best baseball draft (ranked by Baseball America), and aren't expected to win many games, you can do whatever you want.

We're Back!

Greensboro, NC -- Apologies for the LONG delay in churning out a new blog. Believe me, the lack of blogs wasn't due to a shortage of stories, more like a shortage of free time. The student loan industry usually has a mini "peak" during this time of year due to the number of students needing cash before they go back for second semester. I hope to have the blog return to its normal daily schedule starting next week when things begin to slow down for me. For now, I'll clean out the sports notebook with some "this and that."

• The Redskins hired a coach! As a diehard fan, I always want this team to succeed, but there's something about Daniel Snyder that makes me want to see them fail until he learns his lesson. By "learning his lesson," I mean hiring a real GM and staying as far away as possible from the football operations. Snyder may be a competent and successful business man, but that doesn't equate to success on the football field. The draft is there for a reason, Danny Boy!
• I like Jim Zorn... as an offensive coordinator. Something scares me about someone who has never called a play before in the NFL becoming a head coach. Spagnuolo was a wise man by taking the Giants' offer of 3 years-$6M to remain their defensive coordinator. Time to start from scratch on implementing a new offensive scheme, considering that worked wonders when Al Saunders came in 2006.
• Still can't believe the Giants won the Super Bowl... are you happy now, Giants fans?
• I set-up my annual fantasy baseball league today, the second sign following the opening of spring training that baseball is right around the corner! For those of you in my league, your $20 donation to my money clip is greatly appreciated!
• It's funny how Angelos is so hands-on about being involved in trades and free agent signings. Every deal has to cross his desk. The Bedard trade moved at a snail's pace because there was a rumor that Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the deal coming to the Orioles, might have had a degenerative hip. Sound familiar? How about Albert Belle and that 5 year-$65M mistake to make-up for the Palmeiro gaffe? And now it's reported that LHP Troy Patton, the crown jewel of the Tejada trade, might need elbow ligament surgery. Is there a pattern here with meddlesome owners?
• Stan Kasten's "The Plan" surely looks good right now. A year ago today, we thought that the Nats would be playing for the worst record in baseball history. What a turnaround... Baseball America has ranked the Nats' farm system 9th this year after finishing 30th last year. The front office has amassed several talented pitching prospects. Dukes, Pena, Milledge, and Kearns vying for 3 spots in th outfield. Young and Johnson fighting it out for first base. Lopez, Guzman, and Belliard for the middle infield. There's talent here, something that you can't say about the team 35 miles to the north. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats finished above .500 this year.
• The Giants replaced Barry Bonds with Aaron Rowand. Rowand signed a 5 year-$60M contract with the Giants this past offseason. Rowand, considered a tough, crowd pleasing ballplayer, said this this past fall: "I'm all about winning." Sure.
• My sleeper team this year: The Cincinnati Reds. The NL Central is the weakest division in baseball.
• Do you remember the bestseller Moneyball? Here's a classless article from The New York Times' Murray Chass on Jeremy Reed, the misfit catcher and central character of the book, who Billy Beane selected with the A's first pick in the 2002 draft. Speaking of classless articles from The New York Times, what an utter piece of garbage/senseless journalism that the paper produced about John McCain this week.
• There's nothing better than seeing overpaid people going down... Clemens, Boras, Bonds, etc. Boras has been ripped by Gary Sheffield, Kenny Rogers, and A-Rod for his egregious negotiating methods. You know it's bad when the players are complaining, not the GM's. As for Clemens, his fate rests in the hands of his best friend, Andy Pettitte. Bonds is out of work and will probably be for the rest of his life. Signing baseballs at auctions and trade shows do not count. Even with his tax issues, perjury charges, and the like, I think he's ok, considering that he's made $188,245,322 in career earnings.
• Mets, Braves, Phillies, Nats, Marlins in that order for the NL East Standings this year.